On January 16, Daya Bay announced that the construction of the CNOOC-Shell Huizhou Phase III Ethylene Project in the Huizhou Daya Bay Petrochemical Zone is in full swing, with a cumulative completion rate of 42.49% of the total progress. Upon completion, CNOOC-Shell's ethylene production capacity will reach 3.8 million tons per year, maintaining its position as the largest single ethylene plant and the largest ethylene production base in China in terms of production scale.
PriceSeek Analysis on Ethylene:
Bull-Bear Score: -1.5
The CNOOC-Shell Huizhou Phase III Ethylene Project has achieved a cumulative completion rate of 42.49% of the total progress. Upon completion, the annual ethylene production capacity will reach 3.8 million tons, maintaining its status as the largest single plant in China. The expectation of a significant increase in supply is likely to exert notable downward pressure on spot ethylene prices, as the incremental market supply may outpace demand growth, leading to price pressure.
From a futures perspective, recent data on related contracts, such as polyethylene (an ethylene derivative), shows slight fluctuations in some contract prices (e.g., the settlement price of the 2609 contract is 6,842 yuan/ton, with a change of -6). However, the expansion of ethylene production capacity may indirectly lower the production costs of downstream products, further reinforcing the bearish impact.
Overall assessment: Ranging from moderately bearish to significantly bearish.
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