On February 5th, with the successful unhooking of the hexane distillation column (T-3101), the large-scale equipment lifting operations at the Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical Project Department were successfully completed. The overall progress of Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 800,000-ton-per-year olefin project has reached 63.14%, with full construction expected to be completed and trial production initiated by the end of 2026.
Chempricehub's analysis of polyethylene, with a long-short rating: -1.
The article reports that the progress of Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical's 800,000-ton-per-year olefin project has reached 63.14%, with production and trial operations expected to commence by the end of 2026. The project involves hexane distillation processes, which are directly linked to olefin production. As polyethylene is a major derivative, the anticipated increase in supply is expected to impact the market.
Impact on spot prices: In the short term (first half of 2026), the project is not yet operational, so the impact is limited. However, the medium- to long-term increase in supply (800,000 tons of capacity) will intensify downward pressure, negatively affecting polyethylene spot prices.
Impact on futures prices: Based on polyethylene futures data (e.g., the closing price of the 2605 contract at 6,918 yuan/ton, up 28; the closing price of the 2609 contract at 6,975 yuan/ton, up 40), recent contracts have seen slight gains supported by factors such as demand. However, the increased certainty of the project's progress reinforces supply expectations, potentially putting pressure on longer-term contracts. The rise in open interest reflects market positioning for short positions.
Overall rating: Slightly bearish (-1.0), as the new capacity, while not an immediate impact, reinforces the risk of future oversupply.
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