On April 28 – Driven by China's cancellation of the VAT export rebate for BDO effective April 1, 2026, manufacturers aggressively seized export orders in the first quarter, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 68.29% in export volume and a quarter-on-quarter surge of 159.94%. This enabled effective destocking in the BDO industry and supported a domestic price rebound from a trough in March. However, as export demand in the first quarter has prematurely consumed overseas demand in later periods, the favorable external support is expected to weaken in the second quarter. Coupled with expectations of incremental domestic supply, the fundamental support appears insufficient, which may weigh on the BDO market outlook.

Chempricehub assessed 1,4-butanediol with a bullish-bearish score of -1.5.

The analysis indicates that, under the stimulus of the canceled VAT export rebate policy, BDO export volumes in Q1 2026 increased by 68.29% YoY and 159.94% QoQ, driving industry destocking and a domestic price rebound in March—a short-term positive for spot prices. However, the first-quarter export demand was pulled forward, leading to reduced foreign trade support in Q2. Together with anticipated supply growth domestically, the fundamental support is fragile, and spot prices are expected to face downward pressure, posing a bearish outlook for the medium term. The -1.5 score reflects a strong bearish expectation due to significant supply-demand imbalance risks.