In January 2026, Saudi Aramco announced plans to construct a 2 million tons per year natural gas-to-methanol project in Jubail, complete with an export terminal. The products are primarily targeted at Asian markets such as China and India, with operations expected to commence in 2028. This development is set to intensify global methanol supply competition.
PriceSeek Analysis on Methanol, Bull-Bear Score: -2
Saudi Aramco has announced the construction of a 2 million tons per year natural gas-to-methanol project in Jubail, equipped with an export terminal. The products will mainly be sold to Asian markets, including China and India, with operations slated to begin in 2028. This will significantly increase global methanol supply, intensify market competition, and exert substantial downward pressure on spot prices, as expectations of oversupply may weaken pricing power on the demand side.
Considering methanol MA futures data, although the 2605 contract (closing price: 2,352 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan) and the 2609 contract (closing price: 2,376 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan) have shown recent strength, this news reinforces expectations of future supply growth, potentially putting pressure on futures prices, particularly for contracts around 2028. Therefore, the score is assigned as a significant bearish -2, reflecting the supply expansion's suppression of bullish price momentum.
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