ChemPriceHub Key Alert: Sharp Decline in Methanol Operating Rates in Sichuan-Chongqing Region; Low-Cost Supply Suppresses Prices

Recently, statistics show that the operating rate of natural gas-to-methanol plants in Sichuan and Chongqing plummeted from 34% in December 2025 to 21% in January 2026 (a record low), impacted by winter gas supply restrictions and competition from low-priced supplies from Xinjiang. Meanwhile, coal-to-methanol plants in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are operating at full capacity, with low-priced products flowing into other regions, suppressing domestic prices. PriceSeek's analysis of methanol gives a bearish score of -1.5. The article highlights the sharp decline in the operating rate of natural gas-to-methanol plants in Sichuan and Chongqing to a historic low of 21%, driven by winter gas supply restrictions and the influx of low-priced supplies from Xinjiang. At the same time, coal-to-methanol plants in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are running at full capacity, with low-priced products flowing into other regions and suppressing domestic prices. This indicates an increase in supply, particularly the inflow of low-priced methanol into the market, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Combined with the performance of the methanol futures main contract 2605 (settlement price 2,335 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan, open interest decreased by 9,459 lots), the oversupply in fundamentals may intensify, weighing on futures prices. The reduction in open interest suggests potential capital outflows. The overall score is -1.5 (moderately bearish), as the partial support from the decline in operating rates is offset by the influx of low-priced supplies, leading to significant downward pressure on prices.