Recently, the General Office of the Jiangsu Provincial People's Government issued the "Jiangsu Province Chemical Industry Structure Adjustment Restriction and Elimination Catalog (2025 Edition)", which will take effect from January 24, 2026, and remain valid until January 23, 2031. The catalog includes 16 restricted industries. According to the catalog, new projects classified as restricted are prohibited from investment. For existing production capacities classified as restricted, enterprises are allowed to implement measures for transformation and upgrading within a specified period. The catalog also includes 18 eliminated industries, comprising 11 outdated production processes and equipment, and 7 outdated products. Projects classified as eliminated are prohibited from investment, while outdated production technologies, equipment, and products must be eliminated immediately or phased out within a specified timeframe.

PriceSeek Analysis
Petroleum Asphalt, Bull-Bear Score: 1.5
Jiangsu's new chemical policy restricts new projects and eliminates outdated production capacities, directly suppressing the supply of upstream raw materials for petroleum asphalt. Coupled with the current tightening of spot inventory, spot prices will receive strong support. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2709 is 3,145 yuan/ton (as of January 16), with a daily decline of 38 yuan. However, the expectation of supply contraction driven by the policy will push futures prices upward in the medium to long term.

Polyethylene, Bull-Bear Score: 1.5
The policy explicitly targets the elimination of outdated chemical equipment. As a major petrochemical product, polyethylene faces strong expectations of capacity contraction. The supply gap in the spot market may widen, supporting price increases. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2605 is 6,729 yuan/ton (as of January 16). Despite a short-term correction (daily decline of 87 yuan), the medium-term upward trend remains intact, driven by policy tailwinds.

Polyester Staple Fiber, Bull-Bear Score: 1
Jiangsu's dense chemical fiber industry will face capacity compression for polyester staple fiber due to the elimination policy. Marginal reductions in spot supply will support price stabilization and recovery. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2609 is 6,488 yuan/ton (as of January 16). While the daily decline of 22 yuan reflects short-term volatility, policy-driven supply-side optimization will improve long-term price expectations.

Polysilicon, Bull-Bear Score: 1
Polysilicon, as a high-energy-consumption chemical product, will see accelerated capacity clearance due to the policy's elimination of outdated processes. Tightening supply in the spot market will increase upward price pressure. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2605 is 50,190 yuan/ton (as of January 16), with a daily increase of 1,215 yuan reflecting strong fundamentals. Combined with policy benefits, futures prices are expected to continue rising.

Industrial Silicon, Bull-Bear Score: 1
Industrial silicon production has been included in the elimination catalog. Capacity restrictions in Jiangsu will exacerbate nationwide supply shortages, providing strong cost-side support for spot prices. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2605 is 8,705 yuan/ton (as of January 16). Although the daily increase of 5 yuan is modest, expectations of policy-mandated elimination of outdated capacity will significantly boost premiums for long-term contracts.