Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarified that the export tax rebate rate for methanol will remain at 13%. In 2025, China's methanol export volume is projected to reach 3.2 million tons, an 18% year-on-year increase, with primary destinations including Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe. The export target for 2026 is set to increase by 20% year-on-year, aiming to alleviate domestic inventory pressure.
PriceSeek's analysis of methanol indicates a long-short score of 1.5. The maintenance of the 13% export tax rebate rate ensures stable policy support. The projected export volume of 3.2 million tons in 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth, coupled with a 20% increase target for 2026, is expected to significantly ease domestic inventory pressure and boost demand expectations, providing favorable support for spot prices.
On the futures front, the settlement price of the methanol MA main contract 2605 rose by 12 yuan to 2,335 yuan per ton, with trading volume reaching 1.389 million lots and open interest at 815,000 lots. The news of export growth may strengthen market bullish sentiment, particularly benefiting the prices of far-month contracts.
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