On January 16, the General Office of the Jiangsu Provincial People's Government issued the "Jiangsu Province Chemical Industry Structure Adjustment Restriction and Elimination Catalog (2025 Edition)", which will be implemented from January 24, 2026, and will remain valid until January 23, 2031. The restricted industries include 16 items. According to the catalog, new projects classified as restricted are prohibited from investment, while existing production capacities classified as restricted are allowed to undergo transformation and upgrading within a specified period. The eliminated industries include 18 items, comprising 11 outdated production processes and equipment, and 7 outdated products. The catalog stipulates that projects classified as eliminated are prohibited from investment, and outdated production processes, technologies, equipment, and products must be eliminated immediately or phased out within a specified timeframe. Chempricehub Analysis: **Petroleum Asphalt, Bull-Bear Score: 1.5** Jiangsu's new chemical policy restricts new projects and eliminates outdated production capacities, directly suppressing the supply of upstream raw materials for petroleum asphalt. Coupled with the current tightening of spot inventories, spot prices will receive strong support. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2709 is 3,145 yuan/ton (January 16). Although it fell by 38 yuan on the day, the expected supply contraction driven by the policy will push futures prices upward in the medium to long term. **Polyethylene, Bull-Bear Score: 1.5** The policy explicitly eliminates outdated chemical equipment. As a major petrochemical product, polyethylene faces strong expectations of capacity contraction. The supply gap in the spot market may widen, supporting price increases. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2605 is 6,729 yuan/ton (January 16). Driven by the policy's positive impact, the short-term correction (a daily decline of 87 yuan) does not alter the medium-term upward trend. **Polyester Staple Fiber, Bull-Bear Score: 1** Jiangsu's chemical fiber industry is densely concentrated, and the elimination policy will compress polyester staple fiber capacity. Marginal reductions in spot supply will support price stabilization and recovery. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2609 is 6,488 yuan/ton (January 16). The current daily decline of 22 yuan reflects short-term volatility, but the policy-driven supply-side optimization will improve long-term price expectations. **Polysilicon, Bull-Bear Score: 1** Polysilicon is a high-energy-consumption chemical product, and the policy's elimination of outdated processes will accelerate capacity clearance. Spot market supply is tightening, increasing upward pressure on prices. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2605 is 50,190 yuan/ton (January 16). The daily increase of 1,215 yuan already reflects strong fundamentals, and with the added policy benefits, futures prices are expected to continue rising. **Industrial Silicon, Bull-Bear Score: 1** Industrial silicon production has been included in the elimination catalog. Capacity restrictions in Jiangsu will exacerbate nationwide supply shortages, providing strong cost-side support for spot prices. The settlement price of the main futures contract 2605 is 8,705 yuan/ton (January 16). Although the daily increase of 5 yuan is modest, the expectation of policy-mandated elimination of outdated capacity will significantly boost premiums for long-term contracts.