Cost and Supply-Demand Dynamics: ECH Trading Within a Consolidation Range

1. Daily Summary

① Glycerin prices remained largely stable with minor fluctuations. The East China price for 99.5% glycerin was between 8,850 and 9,050 RMB/ton (delivered to surrounding areas).

② ECH traded within a narrow range. The Jiangsu market price was 11,000–11,100 RMB/ton, delivered on acceptance basis.

③ Cost-side changes were limited, and demand showed no improvement. Epoxy resin operated in a steady, slightly soft trend.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic ECH Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Taking the Jiangsu region as the benchmark, today’s ECH price closed at 11,050 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period, consistent with morning expectations. Today, the ECH market moved sideways within a narrow range. Currently, due to continuously shrinking profit margins across different production processes, ECH producers have reduced their willingness to offer lower prices. However, downstream buyers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, primarily restocking during price dips. This has resulted in average shipment volumes for ECH, with new orders mostly quoted within the existing range and transactions driven mainly by rigid demand.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, domestic ECH plants maintained low-load operations, with industry capacity utilization around 44%. The cost of propylene-route ECH was 10,304 RMB/ton, yielding a daily profit of 446 RMB/ton. The cost of glycerin-route ECH was 11,950 RMB/ton, resulting in a daily loss of 900 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Today, domestic ECH prices remained largely stable with minor adjustments. Recently, clear cost support from different production processes and continuously shrinking profit margins have weakened producers' willingness to lower prices. Although there is an intent to maintain prices, downstream buyers are only restocking during dips, limiting the release of actual transaction volume. Consequently, domestic ECH prices have been trending stronger within a consolidation pattern recently.

5. Related Products

Epoxy Resin Market: Taking East China as the benchmark, today’s liquid E-51 epoxy resin ex-works net water price closed at 14,800–15,200 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period. In Huangshan, solid E-12 epoxy resin cash settlement price for surrounding areas closed at 14,400–14,700 RMB/ton, flat compared to the previous trading day, meeting morning market expectations. Raw material prices remained stable, leading to steady pricing from epoxy resin manufacturers. However, downstream demand showed no improvement, remaining limited to rigid needs. There were no clear market signals, so the market focus remained temporarily stable.

Glycerin Market: Taking East China as the benchmark, today’s 99.5% glycerin price closed at 8,950 RMB/ton delivered, unchanged from the previous period. Freight costs were referenced at 150 RMB/ton, broadly consistent with morning expectations. Today, domestic ECH prices remained largely stable with minor adjustments. Recently, clear cost support from different production processes and continuously shrinking profit margins have weakened producers' willingness to lower prices. Although there is an intent to maintain prices, downstream buyers are only restocking during dips, limiting the release of actual transaction volume. Consequently, domestic ECH prices have been trending stronger within a consolidation pattern recently.

Table 2: Domestic ECH Data Overview (Unit: RMB/ton)