Lead-in: The price of raw material propylene has been rising steadily, providing solid price support. Producers show a strong willingness to maintain prices, which, combined with scheduled plant maintenance, has led to higher offers. Downstream buyers are reluctant to chase the rally; most are consuming contract inventories and replenishing stocks on an as-needed basis in small volumes, with no intention of stockpiling. Cost pressures have pushed the acrylic acid market upward, but resistance from downstream demand has limited the extent of the rise. As of October 10, 2026, the mainstream market price for acrylic acid was RMB 8,150/ton.
After the holiday, international crude oil prices rose, leading to tight spot supply of propylene. Propylene prices continued to climb and remained firm at high levels, increasingly supporting acrylic acid costs. However, the transmission of cost pressures has not been smooth. The rise in raw material prices resulted in "passive price increases" rather than "demand-driven growth" for acrylic acid. Downstream buyers remained cautious, avoiding chasing highs and focusing primarily on essential procurement. Consequently, cost increases could not be fully passed on, further compressing price spreads and profit margins.
Overall, the cost side maintained high levels due to tight supply and smooth transactions, providing clear support for acrylic acid and serving as the primary driver of its sustained price increase.
From the supply perspective, overall factory inventories remained low and manageable after the holiday, resulting in minimal pressure to accumulate stock. In this context, producers were unwilling to sell at low prices, showing strong intentions to maintain prices. This created a situation of proactive supply contraction and price floor support. Regarding plant loads, although capacity had increased before the holiday, some units underwent maintenance afterward, causing operating rates to decline and overall capacity to decrease compared to previous levels.
In summary, the contraction of overall supply capacity, combined with strong price maintenance intentions by producers, constitutes another key driver behind the sustained rise in acrylic acid prices.
Cost Side: It is expected that propylene will remain at high levels in the short term due to tight supply, stabilizing the price floor. If propylene experiences a phased pullback, the cost support will weaken accordingly.
Supply Side: With some units undergoing maintenance later in the month, the circulation of spot goods will decrease. Producers' willingness to maintain prices remains evident, and offers are expected to continue rising.
Demand Side: Downstream enterprises are expected to primarily consume contract inventories, with transactions dominated by small-volume replenishment based on essential needs. Overall sentiment for chasing highs is weak, with no intention of stockpiling, making explosive centralized procurement unlikely.
In conclusion, amid the three-way tug-of-war between cost support, supply-side price maintenance, and sluggish downstream demand, acrylic acid prices are highly likely to maintain an upward trend in the short term, albeit with limited gains. Key focus should be placed on future propylene price trends and the pace of downstream restocking.
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