Entering July, the domestic vinyl acetate (VAc) market opened with strong bearish sentiment. Although two units in the supply side underwent simultaneous scheduled maintenance, the overall supply pressure was not substantially alleviated. On one hand, some units on the supply side were ramped up to full load, offsetting the production cuts from maintenance, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate. On the other hand, downstream industries entered the traditional demand off-season, with insufficient terminal orders. Operating rates of downstream plants such as EVA and PVAc emulsion continued to decline. Downstream enterprises only maintained sporadic rigid restocking, and bulk procurement willingness was weak. Upstream cost support was lackluster, further dampening market confidence. A bearish sentiment permeated the entire industry. Producers and intermediaries faced high destocking pressure, with widespread covert price cuts and low-price sell-offs. They actively pushed forward-order sales, resulting in chaotic market quotations, and prices continued to decline under pressure.
The Strait of Hormuz was temporarily closed by Iran at the early morning of July 12, 2026 (local time). The U.S. military began a maritime blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas at 04:00 Beijing time on July 15. Geopolitical instability intensified. The U.S. continued to pressure Iran with parallel military actions and a maritime blockade. Iran threatened to tighten the navigation management of the Strait of Hormuz, and the game over control of the strait persisted. Supply risks continued to disturb the market. Geopolitical conflicts kept international crude oil prices on the rise, raising feedstock ethylene costs simultaneously. The supply side maintained a tightening pattern overall, with limited spot cargo availability in Asia. The positive factors from higher costs and tighter supply outweighed the negative drag from weakening demand, giving ethylene prices strong upward momentum.
During the month, multiple acetic acid units on the supply side underwent scheduled maintenance, supporting a steady price uptrend. The calcium carbide market saw intense supply-demand bargaining with clear fluctuation patterns. Early in the month, power rationing and load reduction in major production areas led to tight supply, pushing prices up. As maintenance furnaces resumed production, market supply increased rapidly. Combined with downstream enterprises proactively reducing loads due to cost pressure and shrinking rigid procurement, calcium carbide faced rising selling pressure, and prices continued to fall. Overall, changes in feedstock formed support for VAc. Both general feedstocks ethylene and acetic acid simultaneously raised production costs across the industry, creating sustained positive factors. Calcium carbide only affected carbide-based units intermittently, and the overall positive cost impact outweighed the negative drag from calcium carbide’s correction.
As the market entered mid-month, earlier maintenance units for VAc restarted but still focused on delivering previous orders, with no spot cargo available for sale externally. Under the influence of geopolitical disturbances, export inquiries increased. Enterprises actively held up prices and raised offers accordingly. Market acceptance of unexpected price increases was limited, downstream inquiry strength was weak, and intermediaries were cautious, lacking follow-through enthusiasm. The price center was tentatively raised. After high-level transactions gradually materialized, the logic behind the price hike was validated. All producers followed suit with simultaneous price increases, leading to a comprehensive rise in market quotations. However, the upward momentum lacked staying power. The positive factors from cost and supply could not sustain, and the market lacked real demand recovery support from downstream. Weak domestic demand persistently capped the upside. Intermediaries grew more concerned about the risk of buying at high prices and generally maintained light positions, making it difficult to boost firm transactions. Although export inquiries increased, overseas order volumes were limited and could not offset the drag from weak domestic demand during the off-season. The positive factors from cost increases and tight supply could only provide a floor for the market, not sustainably drive significant price hikes. As of today, taking the East China market as an example, the high-end and low-end negotiations range at RMB 5,550-5,600/ton, up 1.83% from last week but down 3.88% from the beginning of the month.
In the short term, the domestic VAc market is likely to continue a high-level volatile but relatively strong consolidation pattern. The feedstock acetic acid: units that previously underwent maintenance are restarting, combined with insufficient demand follow-through, making prices prone to decline rather than rise. Ethylene prices remain high, supported by geopolitical situations and tight offshore supply, so the production cost floor still exists, and the probability of a sharp price drop is low. Meanwhile, at this stage, VAc enterprises are mostly delivering orders, limiting spot circulation. Combined with some units scheduled for maintenance, this further limits downside, and prices are expected to narrow-range with a slight upward bias.
In the mid-to-late month period, upward momentum will gradually diminish, and the market will transition into a high-level consolidation pattern. The core pressure on VAc remains weak demand. The traditional off-season pattern for downstream continues, terminal orders lack follow-through, and enterprise operating rates are unlikely to recover quickly. Rigid procurement remains persistently weak, and intermediaries’ wait-and-see attitude shows little improvement. It is difficult to boost transaction volumes. Market prices will hover at high levels with a stalemate, and some local markets may begin to see stealth declines. Focus should be on the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Supply-side positive support is relatively limited. In July-August, there are three units either under maintenance or planned for maintenance. Among them, Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 300,000-ton ethylene-based unit entered maintenance at the end of June and remains shut throughout July. Lianhong's 90,000-ton/year unit is planned to shut down for maintenance from mid-to-late July to early-to-mid August, with specific timing still unclear. Great Wall Energy & Chemical's 450,000-ton carbide-based unit will start maintenance on July 30, which has limited impact on full-month supply. Other major units are running stably, and the overall industry operating rate is relatively high, limiting the degree of supply contraction and failing to sustain a supply-driven positive driver.
| Producer | Unit Type | Capacity (10,000 tons/year) | Start Time | End Time | Maintenance Duration (Days) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shenghong Refining & Chemical | Ethylene-based | 30 | 2026/06/30 | 2026/08/13 | 45 | Planned maintenance |
| Lianhong | Ethylene-based | 9 | 2026/07 | TBD | TBD | Planned maintenance |
| Great Wall Energy & Chemical | Carbide-based | 45 | 2026/07/30 | 2026/08/14 | 15 | Planned maintenance |
From late-month to the end of the month, the VAc market will focus on changes in supply-side operating rates and downstream unit movements. The demand side remains in the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream enterprises running at low loads. Intermediaries are cautious in selling and reluctant to replenish. Market transaction atmosphere is generally muted. A recovery in rigid demand is the core driver to break the current range-bound pattern and drive prices higher. The market is expected to continue a weak volatility trend, and a market recovery will await the boost from the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak demand season.
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