Costs Ease, Wait-and-See Sentiment Intensifies (Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2026)

1. Market Focus for the Week

1. November long-term contract pricing for downstream refrigerant industry: Sinochem Taicang at 15,500–15,600 RMB/ton; Shangyu at 15,600 RMB/ton; Juhua at 15,600–15,650 RMB/ton; Meilan at 15,300 RMB/ton; Dongyue at 15,516 RMB/ton.

2. The industry’s comprehensive capacity utilization rate and production volume are expected to remain stable this week.

3. Fluoro-refrigerants maintained firm offer prices with transactions gradually settling.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub

Domestic Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid Weekly Price Table

The domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) market was characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiment this week. Market momentum weakened compared to previous periods, with participants adopting a cautious stance. On the raw material side, the fluorite market showed slight divergence: northern markets experienced minor declines in price ranges, while southern markets had limited upward push, resulting in overall subdued volatility. Meanwhile, the sulfuric acid market softened; despite large-scale maintenance shutdowns, the downward trend persisted. Consequently, cost-side support has weakened, with expectations of further softening ahead. On the production side, due to easing costs, producers’ willingness to drive prices up has diminished. Major northern plants have not yet resumed operations, but most enterprises maintain high load rates, yielding reasonable profit margins. Future demand remains weakly consolidated, leading many participants to become desensitized to tight supply conditions. On the demand side, refrigerant quota allocations are nearing their end, export conditions have not significantly improved, and terminal industry production schedules continue to decline. Although fluoro-polymers and the lithium battery sector maintain high operating loads, they are insufficient to shift the overall market atmosphere. As of press time, mainstream delivered prices for AHF in East China ranged from 15,300 to 15,650 RMB/ton, while in Shandong, prices were between 15,500 and 15,600 RMB/ton.

3. Raw Material Market Analysis

Weekly Fluorite Market Analysis

This week, the domestic 97% fluorite concentrate market fluctuated within a range, with active trading. It is currently a phase where downstream buyers are making periodic purchases, leading to intense negotiation and bargaining between suppliers and buyers. On the supply side, mine operations remain restricted, causing tight raw material supply for processing plants. Additionally, colder weather in northern regions has increased costs, and many areas face potential production halts later on, strengthening sellers’ resolve to hold prices. On the trading side, most traders follow market trends, purchasing moderately to keep inventory within safe limits. Their operations are primarily driven by downstream pressure to lower prices. Currently, downstream demand resists high fluorite prices due to two factors: first, the squeeze from previously high sulfuric acid costs; second, fluorite prices had been rising earlier, so downstream factories have sufficient inventory and consumption has slowed. Current spot delivered prices across major domestic regions are as follows: Inner Mongolia: 3,300–3,400 RMB/ton; Zhejiang: 3,600–3,700 RMB/ton; Jiangxi and Fujian: 3,700–3,800 RMB/ton; Shandong: 3,550–3,650 RMB/ton; Northwest: 3,400–3,450 RMB/ton; Henan and Anhui: 3,450–3,500 RMB/ton. As of press time, mainstream delivered prices for domestic wet fluorite powder ranged from 3,300 to 3,800 RMB/ton.

Sulfuric Acid

The average domestic sulfuric acid price this period was 1,380 RMB/ton. The market showed regional divergence. Sulfur feedstock prices remained stagnant, weakening cost support for sulfur-based acids. On the supply side, companies that underwent maintenance earlier have gradually resumed production, increasing market supply and exacerbating shipment pressures in some regions. On the demand side, the fertilizer industry remains sluggish, lacking significant positive stimuli, which has heightened bearish sentiment. Regions experiencing price declines included Hunan, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Northeast China. In contrast, Guangdong and Gansu saw price increases. In Guangdong, stable downstream demand combined with planned maintenance at major acid plants next month supported stronger prices. In Gansu, prices rose slightly as enterprise inventories dropped significantly after being low previously. Short-term sulfuric acid prices are expected to remain stagnant. Currently, delivered prices for 98% smelter-grade acid in Yunnan ranged from 1,300 to 1,360 RMB/ton, down 2.99% and 2.86% respectively from last week. Ex-factory prices for 98% ore-based acid in Guangdong ranged from 1,550 to 1,600 RMB/ton, up 3.33% and 3.23% respectively from last week.

R22

This period, major East China manufacturers maintained firm offers for both domestic and foreign trade sales of Refrigerant R22, though the central market price continued to decline. As of press time, offers from major East China manufacturers were around 24,000 RMB/ton (coordinated for domestic and export); mainstream market offers in East China were around 17,000 RMB/ton. Transaction centers for R22 (feedstock grade) ranged from 13,000 to 14,000 RMB/ton. Demand for bulk R22 (ODS) in the domestic market continues to shrink, channel social inventories remain high, costs are elevated, and essential purchase volumes have fallen sharply. Some channel holders are under pressure, selling off inventory at gradually declining prices. Under inventory pressure, the industry operating rate for R22 (ODS + feedstock grade) stabilized at 68% (down 1 percentage point week-on-week), with weekly output at 15,940 tons, a decrease of 240 tons week-on-week. Feedstock-grade R22 prices remained relatively firm due to support from rising AHF costs, with transaction centers in export offers shifting slightly higher during the window period. Terminal markets in both northern and southern regions have entered the off-season, leading to a substantial reduction in demand. Channel sentiment is predominantly bearish, with holders adjusting offers to actively sell while watching official quotes from major manufacturers. In the short term, major factory offers remain firm, operating loads are starting low and trending downward, awaiting downstream digestion. Chempricehub predicts that mainstream factory offers for refrigerants in East China will remain firm, with R22 (ODS) offers around 20,000 RMB/ton.

R32

This period, major manufacturers maintained firm offers for Refrigerant R32, controlling volume to protect prices. As of press time, offers from major East China manufacturers were around 65,500 RMB/ton (coordinated for domestic and export); mainstream market offers in East China ranged from 63,500 to 64,500 RMB/ton. Affected by year-on-year reductions in terminal production schedules and softer industry demand, long-term contract prices for R32 edged up slightly, while spot prices remained firmly flat. Regarding exports, monthly R32 exports totaled 4,354.17 tons, a 70.10% increase month-on-month but a 34.29% decrease year-on-year. Cumulative exports fell 53.13% year-on-year. The export pattern reflects "volume contraction and price increase," indicating tight global supply under quota constraints. From late Q2 to Q3 2026, logistics channels partially cleared, allowing backlogged orders to be fulfilled concentratedly in August and September. Short-term trends show a pulse-like rebound in shipping rhythms and restocking, while weaker cumulative year-on-year performance results from structural demand contraction. Statistically, the R32 industry operating rate stabilized at 43% (down 5 percentage points week-on-week), with weekly output at 3,670 tons, a decrease of 440 tons week-on-week. Balancing limited demand space is preferred over high operating loads leading to inventory accumulation. Market reports indicate that supported by firm high-level official offers for R32 and R125, the blended refrigerant R410A price range showed weak stability, with a weekly average price of 59,500 RMB/ton. Chempricehub predicts ex-factory offers for R32 at 65,500 RMB/ton (coordinated for domestic and export) and for R410A at 59,500 RMB/ton.

5. Next Week Market Forecast

Based on the above analysis, market sentiment has cooled, although the sulfuric acid market remains high. Participants are closely watching the resumption status of major northern plants. Chempricehub forecasts that the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market will run at high levels next week.