Introduction: Following the National Day holiday, the caprolactam market has continued to exhibit a standoff dynamic. Upstream pure benzene prices have remained elevated, supported by crude oil prices, refinery maintenance schedules, and low port inventories, providing strong cost support for caprolactam. Consequently, caprolactam producers face significant cost pressures and are primarily maintaining firm pricing. Downstream procurement of high-priced raw materials remains sluggish, with positive news on the cost side offset by constraints on demand-side follow-through. As a result, caprolactam price increases have been limited.
After the National Day holiday, inventory levels of pure benzene in the East China market were low, with most supplies having locked-in ownership, leaving limited tradable spot resources. This caused the trading center of gravity for pure benzene prices to jump significantly. Refineries implemented a strategy of "prioritizing fuel over chemicals," proactively reducing aromatic yields. Additionally, some refineries reduced loads defensively due to concerns about future feedstock shortages. Overall, pure benzene operating rates fell short of expectations with insufficient upward elasticity, while incremental imports were limited, supporting firm pure benzene prices. Sinopec raised its listed pure benzene price to 10,800 RMB/ton. However, high pure benzene prices compressed downstream production profits, leading to negative feedback. By the latter part of the week, the pure benzene spot market weakened, with prices falling back to 10,200–10,300 RMB/ton by Friday.
Since late September, upstream pure benzene prices have rebounded continuously, increasing cost pressures on caprolactam producers and pushing them into losses. According to Chempricehub data, the gross margin for caprolactam production this week was -2,073 RMB/ton, and the unit gross margin for caprolactam plants was -212 RMB/ton. Although there was a slight recovery compared to the previous week, the sector remains in a loss-making position.
From late September to early October, as several units that had undergone prior maintenance restarted, capacity utilization gradually recovered to around 72%, shifting the caprolactam supply landscape toward looseness. However, recently, as caprolactam entered a loss-making phase, some units slightly reduced their loads, leading to a minor decrease in overall supply volume. Currently, caprolactam capacity utilization has adjusted to 70.02%. After the National Day holiday, companies such as Hunan Petrochemical, Baling Hengyi, Pingmei Shenma, and Shandong Luxi slightly reduced their operating loads.
Summary of Caprolactam Unit Operations
| Enterprise Name | Capacity (kt/a) | Unit Status |
|---|---|---|
| Fujian Shenyuan | 100 | Operating at ~90% load. |
| Hubei Sanning | 75 | Operating at 70% load. |
| Luxi Chemical | 65 | Reported to be operating at ~90% load. |
| Yongrong Technology | 65 | Operating at ~90% load. |
| Cangzhou Xuyang | 62 | Operating at ~60% load. |
| Hunan Petrochemical | 60 | Operating at ~80% load. |
| Guangxi Hengyi | 60 | Operating at 70% load. |
| Baling Hengyi | 50 | Operating at ~80% load. |
| Nanjing Dongfang | 40 | Unit shut down. |
| Huaxu Hengsheng | 40 | Operating at 80% load. |
| Lunan Chemical | 40 | Shut down for maintenance. |
| Pingmei Shenma | 40 | Operating at ~80% load. |
| Fujian Tianchen | 35 | Operating at 85% load. |
| Dongming Xuyang | 30 | Operating at ~80% load. |
| Shanxi Yangmei | 30 | Phase I shut down; Phase II operating at 70% load. |
| Shanxi Lanhua | 14 | Unit shut down. |
| Shanxi Lubao | 10 | Unit shut down. |
| Zhejiang Juhua | 10 | Unit shut down. |
| Total | 826 | Load as of Oct 16: 70.02% |
Data Source: Chempricehub
In the downstream PA6 market, post-holiday prices primarily followed fluctuations in raw material costs, with chip prices showing some recovery. Prices for PA6 standard spinning chips rose slightly; the mainstream price in the East China market is currently 14,800–15,000 RMB/ton. This rebound was supported by rising upstream pure benzene prices, post-holiday restocking by downstream buyers and traders driven by rigid demand, and low inventory levels of standard spinning chips among polymerization enterprises. Conversely, the uptake of PA6 high-speed spinning chips remained slow. The current price for high-speed spinning chips in the East China market is around 15,000 RMB/ton. Downstream spinning factories continue to procure mainly on an as-needed basis, resulting in relatively weak performance in the high-speed spinning chip market.
The nylon fiber market prices largely remained stable after the holiday. Filament manufacturers maintained moderate operating rates, with producers still inclined to hold prices firm due to cost pressures. However, downstream weaving orders did not show significant growth after the holiday, terminal demand remained flat, and market transactions were sparse. Participants adopted a wait-and-see attitude, quotes for mainstream specifications remained basically stable, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continued, maintaining a stalemate.
On the terminal weaving front, autumn/winter cold-protection fabrics saw some restocking. Orders for regular varieties such as sweatshirt fabric, Derong, and fleece, as well as cold-protection lining fabrics and outdoor fabrics, performed moderately well, driving a slight increase in operating rates for some enterprises. However, foreign trade orders remained persistently weak, with Christmas orders mostly consisting of small, short-term contracts. New orders for fleece categories were unremarkable. The peak season atmosphere has not fully materialized, limiting enterprises' willingness to proactively increase loads, resulting in clear divergence in industry operating rates. According to Chempricehub statistics, as of October 15, the comprehensive operating rate for chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region was 51.67%.
Under cost pressure, caprolactam producers have shown strong willingness to maintain prices. This week, enterprise quotes attempted to rise, but downstream follow-through remained difficult, leading to a stalemate in market negotiations. By Friday, the caprolactam price in the East China market ultimately increased by 100 RMB to 14,300 RMB/ton (acceptance delivery basis).
Looking ahead, regarding costs, pure benzene spot prices turned weaker and declined. On Friday, Sinopec lowered its listed pure benzene price by 200 RMB to 10,600 RMB/ton, and East China spot prices fell to 10,200–10,300 RMB/ton. Currently, the cost side has turned bearish for caprolactam. Regarding supply and demand, although recent operating loads decreased slightly, the overall supply landscape remains loose. If support from pure benzene weakens further, it will continue to impact downstream sentiment. In summary, the caprolactam market is expected to continue its standoff dynamics in the short term, with prices likely undergoing minor adjustments while awaiting new changes in cost guidance.
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