Costs Surge, Driving Up the Market Center of Gravity for Dichloromethane (Oct 1–9, 2026)

1. Market Analysis for the Current Period

During this period, domestic dichloromethane (DCM) prices continued to rise. The core logic driving market performance is the high cost pressure from raw materials, which has constrained production loads among methane chloride producers and led to a notable reduction in regional supply, thereby providing fundamental support for the upward price trend. Currently, industry operating rates are hovering around 60%, with several units reducing load or shutting down. Producers face no inventory pressure and continue to maintain firm offers. Additionally, ahead of the holiday, some downstream users and traders refrained from large-scale stockpiling due to relatively high DCM prices; following the holiday, they engaged in moderate replenishment, resulting in decent demand performance. Within the cycle, the primary downstream product, refrigerant R32, saw seasonal demand softening, with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) shipping strictly according to orders. Negotiations for Q4 contracts have recently commenced, with limited expected price increases. Furthermore, production-side quota adjustments have primarily resulted in reduced output volumes to control the base of spot supply. During the export "window," the supply side actively increased exports to ensure quota fulfillment. The operating rate of the fluororefrigerant R32 industry stands at 48% (up 4 percentage points compared to the previous period), indicating that balancing limited demand space is currently a more optimal strategy than maintaining high operating rates and accumulating inventory.

For the next period, dichloromethane prices are projected to increase relative to this week's average. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply Side: In the upcoming period, some units may increase loads or restart operations, potentially leading to a slight increase in overall production compared to this cycle. However, current enterprise inventories remain under no significant pressure.
2. Demand Side: With DCM prices running at elevated levels, downstream users and traders are adopting cautious strategies, focusing on rigid demand transactions. Demand momentum may therefore slow down somewhat.
3. Cost Side: Raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine remain at high levels, placing considerable cost pressure on methane chloride producers.

Overall, supported by dual boosts from the supply side and cost pressures, the domestic dichloromethane market is expected to retain upside potential. Demand remains passive, with the market characterized primarily by small-volume purchases driven by rigid needs. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in market sentiment and news.