① China’s monthly production of epichlorohydrin (ECH) in October reached 115,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.26%.
② The average theoretical profit for glycerin-route ECH in China in October was -738 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month improvement of 4.53%.
③ In October, 15 ECH units in China were under maintenance, involving a total capacity of 1,008,000 tons/year, with a combined output loss of 85,600 tons.
Domestic ECH Price Fluctuation Table (Monthly)
Unit: RMB/ton
| Region | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Same Period Last Year | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu | 11,158 | 11,370 | 12,139 | -1.86% | -8.08% |
| Huangshan | 11,175 | 11,450 | 12,214 | -2.40% | -8.51% |
| Shandong | 10,853 | 11,119 | 12,011 | -2.39% | -9.64% |
Data Source: Chempricehub
In October, the domestic ECH market exhibited a trend of rising first and then falling. Following the National Day holiday, the ECH market lacked directional bullish or bearish catalysts, with limited changes in supply-demand fundamentals; prices remained in a sideways fluctuation pattern with a narrow trading range. On the afternoon of October 10th, driven by the resonance of cost-side and supply-demand factors, ECH initiated a phase of rebound. Propylene prices strengthened due to tightened domestic supply and external news disturbances, with the Shandong propylene market breaking through the 10,000 RMB/ton threshold. This significantly increased raw material costs for propylene-route ECH production, sharply compressing production profits. Although glycerin prices showed a weak, narrow-range consolidation, they still provided support for the product's price floor. Meanwhile, multiple units in the main production areas of Shandong and Jiangsu implemented load reductions or shutdowns for maintenance, leading to a contraction in effective industry supply. Supported by high costs and tight supply, expectations for holding prices rose among market participants, prompting producers to continuously raise ex-factory quotes. As of October 15th, the delivered cash-in-advance price range in the Jiangsu market was 11,200–11,300 RMB/ton, an increase of 200 RMB/ton (1.81%) from October 9th. Entering the second half of the month, the market shifted from strong to weak, trending downward amid stability. Downstream end-users showed resistance to high raw material prices, engaging only in small-volume replenishment based on rigid demand. Low-priced货源 were scarce, hindering significant transaction volume growth, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere as the market oscillated within its range. From October 22nd onwards, cost support gradually weakened. Combined with sluggish downstream demand follow-through, participant expectations turned bearish. Increased discounting for shipments led to a decline in the center of gravity for ECH prices. As of October 28th, the average delivered cash-in-advance price in the Jiangsu market was 11,158 RMB/ton, a decrease of 212 RMB/ton (-1.86%) compared to the September average.
In November 2026, the ECH market will be characterized by a tug-of-war between costs and supply-demand dynamics. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly but with limited upside potential. On the cost side, trends for propylene and glycerin will diverge, yet bottom support remains. Propylene, influenced by crude oil prices and regional supply rhythms, is likely to maintain mid-to-high levels, keeping pressure on propylene-route production. Glycerin will consolidate weakly, lacking upward momentum, serving only to protect the price floor without driving the market higher. On the supply side, both load-reduced and shut-down units exist, lowering industry operating rates and reducing spot resources. Affected by divergent profitability across the industry, glycerin-route units face significant loss pressures, weakening enterprises' willingness to increase loads, thus tightening market supply expectations. On the demand side, major downstream epoxy resin supply is expected to increase, with rising utilization rates providing support to the ECH market. Overall, while cost support is evident, improved demand expectations boost market sentiment, suggesting the price center may adjust within a narrow range at elevated levels. Key focus points moving forward include fluctuations in propylene and glycerin raw materials, start-up/shutdown dynamics of units in main production areas, and changes in terminal orders for epoxy resin.
For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub ECH Monthly Report.
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