The volatile U.S.–Iran situation and Strait of Hormuz transit developments continue to affect domestic crude oil supply, exerting sustained pressure on pure benzene prices.
Port inventories remain persistently low, with frequent short-squeeze trading around tight port stocks driving high-price transactions.
Brent crude has remained above USD 100/bbl in a range-bound pattern; supported by rising feedstock costs and tight supply expectations, pure benzene prices have also oscillated at elevated levels.
| Figure 1: Weekly Price Trend Comparison of East China–Shandong Pure Benzene (CNY/ton), 2025–2026 |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
In October, the East China pure benzene market exhibited wide-range fluctuations at elevated levels, with indicative transaction prices ranging from CNY 10,100 to 10,850 per ton. Early in the month, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and strengthening crude oil prices supported a rapid rise in spot prices to interim highs, fostering a bullish market sentiment. In mid-to-late October, as geopolitical premiums partially receded and downstream negative feedback intensified, prices pulled back from highs, though declines were limited by low inventory support. On the supply side, some refineries reduced operating rates due to feedstock constraints and defensive curtailments, resulting in lower-than-expected capacity utilization increases. Combined with limited import arrivals, overall supply remained tight. East China port inventories stayed at historic lows, restricting available spot circulation resources. On the demand side, major downstream products faced significant losses, increasing resistance to high-priced raw materials. Some units reduced or halted production, gradually materializing expectations of demand contraction. Overall, the tension between low inventory realities and weak downstream demand dominated the month. Although the price center shifted downward, deep declines faced strong resistance, keeping the market in an elevated range-bound pattern.
Table 1: Domestic Pure Benzene Price Change Summary
Unit: CNY/ton
| Region | October Average | September Average | Year-on-Year Same Period | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 10,408 | 9,647 | 5,555 | 7.89% | 87.36% |
| South China | 10,600 | 9,555 | 5,572 | 10.94% | 90.24% |
| Shandong | 10,376 | 9,402 | 5,539 | 10.36% | 87.33% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
| Figure 2: Capacity Utilization Trends of Downstream Products for Pure Benzene, 2025–2026 |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
Downstream capacity utilization declined overall during this period, reflecting reduced demand from certain downstream varieties in October due to persistent losses. Looking ahead, styrene and phenol are expected to see rising capacity utilization, while caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid are forecasted to experience declining utilization. Based on weighted calculations of downstream consumption shares, the composite downstream capacity utilization for November is projected to increase.
Table 2: Changes in Capacity Utilization for Pure Benzene and Downstream Products
| Category | Product | October | September | Change | November Forecast | Forecast Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Product | Pure Benzene | 71.16% | 69.87% | +1.29% | 73.01% | +1.85% |
| Downstream Products | Styrene | 63.46% | 64.30% | -0.84% | 65.58% | +2.12% |
| Caprolactam | 70.68% | 69.41% | +1.27% | 70.00% | -0.68% | |
| Phenol | 78.71% | 79.62% | -0.91% | 82.37% | +3.66% | |
| Aniline | 83.47% | 84.15% | -0.68% | 83.44% | -0.03% | |
| Adipic Acid | 71.17% | 67.01% | +4.16% | 70.70% | -0.47% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
International crude oil prices may trend stronger in November. The core driver remains the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, where the U.S.–Iran standoff persists, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continue, and geopolitical risks are unlikely to fully ease in the short term, providing strong bottom support for oil prices. WTI is expected to trade within a range of USD 95–108/bbl, while Brent may fluctuate between USD 109–122/bbl. Domestic daily pure benzene output has actually shown an upward trend. Meanwhile, narrowing arbitrage windows between Korea and the U.S. have led to a significant increase in overseas pure benzene sales into China, resulting in overall growth in total supply. Operating rates for styrene and some other downstream products have rebounded slightly, but incremental downstream demand remains limited and insufficient to absorb the expanded supply, shifting the market supply-demand balance toward surplus. Overall, although pure benzene fundamentals face weakening prospects, current low port inventories and strong performance in feedstocks like crude oil provide clear bottom support for prices. The reference price range for East China is estimated at CNY 10,200–10,800 per ton.
For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Pure Benzene Monthly Report.
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