Demand-Side Underperformance and Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment in the Market (20260907)

1. Today's Summary

• 9/4: Persisting instability in the U.S.-Iran situation and lingering supply risk concerns lifted international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for October delivery rose $0.18/barrel to settle at $91.48, +0.20% day-on-day; ICE Brent futures for November delivery rose $0.76/barrel to settle at $96.28, +0.80%. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2610 contract fell 7.8 yuan to 683.1 yuan/barrel, then gained 7.6 yuan to 690.7 yuan/barrel in night trading.
• 9/7: Today, domestic liquid chlorine prices were lowered to 150 yuan/ton.

2. Spot Overview

Table 1. Domestic dichloromethane price summary (unit: yuan/ton)

Source: Chempricehub Information

Taking Shandong as the benchmark, dichloromethane in Shandong closed at 2,190 yuan/ton (range: 2,130-2,250 yuan/ton) today, down from the previous working day. The domestic dichloromethane market was unsteady today. With prices at relatively high levels, downstream buyers and traders mostly remained on the sidelines, leading to sluggish market transactions. Producers flexibly adjusted their offers according to their own shipment and inventory conditions, causing the market center to fluctuate lower.

3. Production Dynamics

Chloromethanes capacity utilization stood at 80.78%, stable from the previous working day. In terms of costs and profits, upstream liquid chlorine prices fell today while methanol prices remained stable, lowering the theoretical cost of chloromethanes. Based on externally purchased liquid chlorine, the daily profit for chloromethanes was -246 yuan/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Dichloromethane prices are currently at relatively high levels, and downstream buyers and traders show little enthusiasm for taking orders, resulting in flat market transactions. Holders remain shipment-oriented and mainly compete on price. However, chloromethanes producers are under considerable cost pressure, so the room for price adjustments is expected to be limited.

5. Related Product Situation

Refrigerant market: Based on the bulk market in East China, mainstream fluorinated refrigerant R32 producers maintained high-level consolidation, with controlled supply to support prices. As of press time, major East China plants' reference offers were 65,500 yuan/ton (coordinated domestic and export offers); mainstream East China market offers were referenced at 63,500-64,500 yuan/ton, in line with morning expectations. Market sources indicate that bulk inquiries in the channel market have long been passive, with supply fixed to support OEMs. Small-package shipments have been slow, so upstream plants are strictly controlling spot volume increases. According to statistics, the industry-wide operating load for fluorinated refrigerant R32 remains around 40-50%. In South China, frequent rainy weather has recently dampened buying sentiment, and OEM production scheduling and consumption momentum have further contracted. With R32 consolidating sideways at high levels, channel holders are seeking opportunities to sell and destock, showing little intention to procure high-cost material while waiting for clearer offer signals from major producers. Chempricehub expects fluorinated refrigerant R32 to remain dominated by controlled supply and price protection in the short term, with negotiated contract pricing, while monitoring industry unit operations and production schedules.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2. Domestic chloromethanes data overview (unit: 10,000 tons)

Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes: 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with a change exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuation, highlighting data with a change within 0-3%.