Domestic ethanol market prices remain stable.

1. Daily Summary

① Ethanol prices in the Jilin region of Northeast China remained stable; Dongfeng Hualiang resumed production.
② Prices in the Heilongjiang region of Northeast China remained stable.
③ Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable, while prices in Northwest China continued to rise.
④ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan province remained stable.
⑤ Ethanol prices in East China remained stable.
⑥ Downstream chemical industries maintained essential demand transactions.
⑦ Prices at downstream refineries in Shandong were weak.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethanol Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

[Daily Commentary] Based on the Heilongjiang region as a benchmark, today's closing price for 95% ethanol was 4,950–5,100 CNY/ton. Prices in the Jilin region of Northeast China and the Heilongjiang region remained stable, with tight spot availability for premium-grade ethanol. On the fuel side, plant operations were stable, and major suppliers fulfilled orders. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan province remained stable, with moderate essential demand from downstream sectors. Ethanol prices in East China were stable, with limited new contract transactions, though delivered prices for chemicals rose. Coal-based ethanol prices in East China remained stable, while prices in Northwest China increased; other regions saw stable prices. Delivered prices for downstream products in Shandong remained stable.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the domestic ethanol capacity utilization rate held steady at 50.55%. Regarding edible ethanol production, Hongzhan in Heilongjiang operated at low load levels; Zhongke Green operated; Shenglong units were shut down; Wanli Ethanol, Dongfeng in Jilin, Fukang units, Yushu units, Xintianlong units, Baiyecheng units in Inner Mongolia, Hanyong units in Henan, Huaxing units, Sichuan Hongzhan, Qu Feng in Shandong, Huating in East China, Wan Shen in Anhui, COFCO Fuel in Anhui, COFCO Zhaodong, Guotou Jidong, Hailun Bio, and Tieling units all operated. Hou Yuan units were shut down. Longhe units, Guannan Xinguan units, and Romate units were shut down. Today, the theoretical profit for 95% corn ethanol in Heilongjiang was 196.00 CNY/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to exhibit regional trends in the short term. Prices in Northeast China will remain stable, with potential increases for certain product grades. Prices in East China will stay stable as contract orders are shipped. Prices in Henan province may weaken due to limited downstream demand and rising inventory, potentially leading to lower quotes for some products. Coal-based ethanol prices will remain stable with contract shipments, facing no significant inventory pressure in the short term. Fuel ethanol prices are expected to maintain a steady trend, with no inventory buildup at any plants.

5. Related Products

1. Dried Cassava: On October 10, FOB Bangkok quotes for Thai dried cassava stood at USD 245/ton; CNF quotes for Vietnamese dried cassava were also USD 245/ton.
2. Corn: Short-term market supply pressure persists, but there are currently no signs of obvious improvement on the demand side. Corn prices are expected to trade weaker in the short term.
3. Ethyl Acetate: The market price of ethyl acetate in East China rose by 75 CNY/ton, trading at 7,000–7,170 CNY/ton ex-factory (spot cash). Plant offers were raised, and market quotes remained firm. However, downstream inquiry activity was moderate, with some participants adopting a wait-and-see approach.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethanol Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)