① Ethanol transaction prices in Jilin, Northeast China remained stable;
② Transaction prices in Heilongjiang, Northeast China remained stable;
③ Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable;
④ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan rose;
⑤ Ethanol prices in East China remained stable;
⑥ Downstream chemical producers made rigid-demand purchases, and delivered prices rose;
⑦ Downstream refinery prices in Shandong edged up.
Table 1 Domestic Ethanol Price Summary (Unit: yuan/mt)
| Market | Specification | Sep 10 | Sep 11 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heilongjiang | 95% corn-based ethanol | 4900-5050 | 4900-5050 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Jilin | 95% corn-based ethanol | 5100-5170 | 5100-5170 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Shandong | 95% wheat-based ethanol | 5470-5500 | 5470-5500 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Northern Jiangsu | 95% cassava-based ethanol | 5600-5600 | 5600-5600 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Anhui | 95% cassava-based ethanol | 5650-5700 | 5650-5700 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Henan | Premium-grade corn ethanol | 5500-5500 | 5520-5530 | +20/+20 | +0.36% |
| Guangxi | 95% cassava-based ethanol | 5700-5850 | 5700-5850 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Heilongjiang | 99.9% corn-based anhydrous ethanol | 5700-5800 | 5700-5850 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Jilin | 99.9% corn-based anhydrous ethanol | 5800-5920 | 5800-5920 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Northern Jiangsu | 99.9% cassava-based anhydrous ethanol | 6350-6400 | 6350-6400 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Guangxi | 99.9% cassava-based anhydrous ethanol | 6500-6600 | 6500-6600 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Jilin | Fuel ethanol | 6340-6340 | 6340-6340 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Heilongjiang | Fuel ethanol | 6000-6198 | 6100-6198 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Shandong local refineries | Fuel ethanol (tax included) | 5940-5940 | 5940-6010 | 0/+70 | +0.59% |
| Anhui | Coal-based ethanol | 5980 | 5980 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Key Downstream | |||||
| East China | Ethyl acetate | 6150-6300 | 6400-6500 | +250/+200 | +3.62% |
| East China | Ethyl acrylate | 10500-10600 | 10500-10600 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| China | Ethyl methyl carbonate | 7300-7500 | 7300-7500 | 0/0 | 0.00% |
| Data source: Chempricehub Information |
Today's Commentary
With Heilongjiang as the benchmark, 95% ethanol closed at 4,900-5,050 yuan/mt today. Ethanol prices in Northeast China were stable; contract orders were being shipped, and delivered prices rose. One line at Hongzhan Jixian resumed operation, while the Huanan plant shut down. In the fuel ethanol sector, plants were stable, with some major buyers making rigid-demand purchases. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan rose; factories had no inventory, and downstream buyers purchased on a rigid-demand basis. Ethanol prices in East China were stable; downstream chemical producers made rigid-demand purchases, and delivered prices rose. Coal-based ethanol prices were stable, with orders being shipped. Delivered prices in downstream Shandong edged up.
Today, the ethanol capacity utilization rate remained at 46.31%. For edible ethanol operations: in Heilongjiang, one line at Hongzhan Jixian resumed operation, and the Huanan plant shut down; Zhongke Gelin was operating, the Shenglong plant was operating, and Wanli Ethanol was operating; in Jilin, Dongfeng shut down, the Fukang plant was operating, the Yushu plant was operating, and the Xintianlong plant was operating; the Inner Mongolia Baiyecheng plant was operating; the Henan Hanyong plant was operating, the Huaxing plant was operating, and the Houyuan plant was operating; Sichuan Hongzhan shut down; Shandong Qufeng was operating; in East China, Huating shut down, Longhe shut down, Guannan Xinguan shut down, and Luomaite shut down; Anhui Wanshen was operating, and Anhui COFCO Fuel was operating; Zhaodong COFCO was operating; SDIC Jidong was operating, Hailun Bio was operating, and Tieling was operating. Today, the profit for 95% corn ethanol in Heilongjiang was -180.34 yuan/mt.
Domestic ethanol prices are expected to be stable to firm in the short term. In Northeast China, prices will be stable to firm; contract orders are being shipped, freight rates are rising, and delivered prices are increasing. In East China, prices will be stable to firm, with chemical producers purchasing on a rigid-demand basis. In Henan, prices will be stable as the market awaits downstream consumption, and trading volume is expected to decline in the short term. Coal-based ethanol prices will be stable or adjust by region, with orders being shipped. For fuel ethanol, transaction prices of major sellers will be stable, with orders being shipped.
Cassava chips: On September 11, Thai cassava chips were quoted at USD 245/mt FOB Bangkok; Vietnamese cassava chips were quoted at USD 245/mt CNF.
Corn: The new crop is gradually increasing in market supply, but demand appears somewhat lackluster at present. Attention should be paid to the corn market supply situation; the possibility of a sharp rise in new-crop corn prices in the short term is relatively low.
Ethyl acetate: The ethyl acetate market price in East China rose by 225 yuan/mt to 6,400-6,500 yuan/mt ex-works in cash. Market support is solid; holders and plants are firm in their offers, negotiations are mainly for rigid demand, and the atmosphere is mild.
Table 2 Domestic Ethanol Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 mt)
| Data | Release Date | Previous Data | Expected Trend for Current Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethanol capacity utilization | Thursday 17:00 | 46.31% | ↘ |
| Fuel ethanol theoretical profit | Thursday 16:30 | 341.82 | ↗ |
| Ethanol theoretical profit (corn-based) | Thursday 16:30 | -180.34 | ↗ |
| Ethanol theoretical profit (cassava-based) | Thursday 16:30 | -449.14 | ↘ |
| Data source: Chempricehub Information. Notes: 1. ↓↑ indicates large fluctuations, highlighting data with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
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