This week, domestic fluorite prices mainly fluctuated, with the average price reaching 3,406.25 yuan per ton by the weekend, a slight increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of the week (3,400 yuan per ton) but a year-on-year decline of 5.48%.

Supply Side: Normal Fluorite Spot Supply with High Inventory Levels
The competitive landscape in the domestic fluorite industry persists. Overall, there has been little change in the operating rates of enterprises. Upstream mining operations remain constrained, with outdated mines continuing to be phased out. Efforts to explore new mines face significant challenges, compounded by regulatory reforms targeting fluorite mines. Fluorite mining enterprises are grappling with increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to resume mining operations. However, spot supply in the fluorite market remains normal, and social inventories continue to remain high without significant signs of reduction. The supply side maintains a stable production pace, and as year-end approaches, production activities are slowing down, leading to a contraction in periodic restocking. Recent downstream procurement has been sluggish, with fluorite shipments remaining moderate, contributing to stable market conditions.

Demand Side: Stable Hydrofluoric Acid Prices and Moderate Refrigerant Market
This week, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices remained stable, with mainstream negotiated prices across regions ranging from 12,000 to 12,500 yuan per ton. Some downstream hydrofluoric acid production units are still idle, resulting in minimal changes in spot supply. Manufacturers are procuring hydrofluoric acid based on demand, with overall operating rates maintained at just over 50%. Hydrofluoric acid enterprises are fulfilling essential orders while operating at a loss. Recently, hydrofluoric acid buyers have shown limited enthusiasm for procurement. The fluorite market is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between supply and demand, leading to a "price without market" deadlock. Despite being in the traditional restocking phase for downstream industries such as refrigerants, the lack of robust demand support has suppressed procurement interest due to high prices, thereby affecting the digestion pace of upstream raw materials. As a result, fluorite prices have remained largely unchanged.

The terminal refrigerant market has remained stable overall, with policy-driven efforts in the refrigerant industry expected to substantially boost demand. Fluorochemical enterprises, operating within quota controls, exhibit strong confidence in maintaining refrigerant prices. However, current high prices have slowed procurement, with downstream channels focusing on essential restocking. Industry inventories have dropped to near two-year lows. On the supply side, constraints from the quota system, combined with a highly concentrated market structure, have bolstered market confidence. Nevertheless, upstream procurement remains cautious, contributing to stable fluorite prices.

Beyond traditional demand from the refrigerant industry, fluorite serves as a critical mineral raw material for modern industries. Emerging applications continue to develop, including its use in strategic sectors such as new energy, new materials, defense, and nuclear industries. Examples include lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anodes, and photovoltaic panels. Demand from new energy and semiconductor sectors provides some support for fluorite applications.

Future Outlook:
In the near term, domestic fluorite ore supply is unlikely to improve significantly, as some mines have suspended operations for safety inspections. Tight fluorite ore supply serves as a positive factor for the market. However, high spot inventories and cautious procurement by downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, coupled with the absence of substantial demand recovery, have led to intense competition between supply and demand. Overall, fluorite prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.