【Introduction】: As of October 26, multiple phenol-acetone units in China have undergone concentrated maintenance, causing the utilization rate to drop to 72%. This surge in maintenance activities has created a domestic supply gap of approximately 22,000 tons, necessitating reliance on imported sources. During the same period, port inventories declined from a high of 24,500 tons to 19,500 tons. With major plants facing no significant inventory pressure, Shandong-based facilities took the lead in sharply raising opening prices, with gains reaching 800 RMB/ton within just two days.
(Figure 1: Trend Chart of Domestic Phenol-Acetone Capacity Utilization Rate)
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
In October, as losses for domestic phenol-acetone enterprises continued to widen, units at Guangxi Huayi, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Yangzhou Shiyou, Sinopec-SABIC Tianjin, Qingdao Haiwan, Shandong Fuyu, and Lihua Yiweiyuan underwent shutdowns for maintenance of varying durations. Consequently, the domestic capacity utilization rate for phenol-acetone temporarily fell to 72%.
Table 1: Summary of Acetone Unit Maintenance in October 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tons)
| Manufacturer | Capacity | Start Date | End Date | Days Under Maintenance in Oct | Monthly Loss Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC-Shell | 13 | 2023/7/1 | -- | 31 | 1.10 |
| Huizhou Zhongxin (Phase I) | 12 | 2025/4/11 | -- | 31 | 1.06 |
| Huizhou Zhongxin (Phase II) | 18 | 2026/10/8 | 2026/10/12 | 5 | 0.26 |
| Guangxi Huayi | 11 | 2026/10/9 | 2026/10/15 | 7 | 0.22 |
| Zhenhai Refining & Chemical | 25 | 2026/10/13 | 2026/10/15 | 3 | 0.21 |
| Yangzhou Shiyou | 12 | 2026/10/14 | 2026/10/22 | 9 | 0.31 |
| Sinopec-SABIC Tianjin | 13 | 2026/10/18 | 2026/10/31 | 14 | 0.52 |
| Qingdao Haiwan | 12 | 2026/10/19 | 2026/10/28 | 10 | 0.34 |
| Shandong Fuyu | 10 | 2026/10/20 | 2026/10/31 | 12 | 0.34 |
| Lihua Yiweiyuan (Phase I) | 13 | 2026/10/24 | -- | 12 | 0.45 |
| Total | 139 | 4.82 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
According to estimates by Chempricehub Information, acetone production in October stood at 303,400 tons, with cumulative production losses totaling approximately 48,200 tons. The average capacity utilization rate for phenol-acetone units in October was 79.37%. For November, only a limited number of units have planned maintenance; ad-hoc maintenance schedules remain to be monitored.
(Figure 2: Trend Chart of Jiangyin Port Acetone Inventory (Unit: 10,000 tons))
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
As of October 26, 2026, acetone inventory at Jiangyin Port, China, stood at 19,500 tons, comprising 1,500 tons held by Hengyang and 18,000 tons by Huaxi, representing a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to October 23. Recently, only South Korean cargoes have arrived to replenish stocks, while there has been no supplement from domestic trade sources, resulting in a drawdown of port inventories. Market reports indicate that Thai phenol-acetone units plan to shut down for maintenance, meaning no new cargo arrivals are expected in November to replenish the domestic market. Future vessel movements need to be tracked closely, as port inventories may continue to decline.
With the sharp rise in acetone prices, downstream industries are universally facing profit compression. Resistance to high raw material costs is evident, and procurement pacing generally lags behind the upward price pushes by holders.
(Figure 3: Weekly Profit Comparison of Acetone and Upstream/Downstream Products in 2026 (RMB/ton))
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Bisphenol A (BPA): Industry profitability remains poor, with operations running at a loss. As of October 22, the production profit margin was -1,202 RMB/ton. Operating rates for downstream Polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resins diverged (one rising, one falling), leading to a month-on-month decrease in BPA consumption. Enterprises show limited willingness to actively restock, focusing primarily on essential demand purchases.
Methyl Methacrylate (MMA): Profit margins are similarly thin or inverted. As of October 22, the production profit using the Acetone Cyanohydrin (ACH) process was -279 RMB/ton, turning negative from positive levels previously. Overall industry operating rates hover around 55%, indicating insufficient ability to absorb high-priced acetone. Fewer companies are participating in tender procurement.
Isopropanol (IPA): Units utilizing the acetone route are deeply in deficit, making this product the most resistant to high raw material costs. As of October 22, the sample gross production margin for the acetone route was -150 RMB/ton. Since the increase in acetone prices far outpaced the rise in IPA prices itself, many acetone-route units have shut down or are operating at low loads. Capacity utilization has dropped to low levels, subsequently contracting demand for acetone.
Methyl Isobutyl Ketone (MIBK): Currently also in a loss position. Although the magnitude of losses has narrowed recently, profitability has not yet returned to positive territory. MIBK's losses stem mainly from the squeeze between strong acetone costs and weak downstream demand absorption. As of October 22, the production gross margin was -454 RMB/ton.
Overall, the four major downstream industries lack sufficient profit margins to absorb the rapid rise in acetone prices. Actual transactions are dominated by small-volume essential purchases, which fail to provide sustained upward momentum for acetone prices.
The tight spot supply caused by concentrated phenol-acetone unit maintenance and the drawdown of port inventories are the direct drivers of this rally. Supply contraction is the core support keeping acetone prices at elevated levels. Major downstream products such as BPA, MMA, IPA, and MIBK are universally facing profit compression or losses, showing clear resistance to high-priced raw materials. Actual trading remains limited to small-volume essential needs. Without downstream profit space to digest the rapid price hikes, further increases could trigger expanded production cuts or shutdowns, thereby weakening acetone demand.
Based on comprehensive analysis, short-term acetone prices are supported by low inventories and cost factors but lack effective downstream cooperation, resulting in insufficient momentum for continued rises. The acetone market is expected to fluctuate at high levels in the near term. The volatility range will depend on the tug-of-war between the pace of maintenance unit restarts and downstream essential restocking. A unilateral bullish trend is unlikely to sustain. After the short-term surge, room for further upside is limited, and the market will likely enter a stalemate oscillation pattern at high levels, with correction risks accumulating. The game between plant-led price pushes and downstream wait-and-see attitudes indeed constrains acetone's rebound strength, requiring close monitoring of specific developments.
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