Downstream buyers are adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, leading to a decline in monomer prices.

1. Daily Summary

① Raw Materials: East China ethylene oxide (EO) prices fell to 9,700 yuan/ton, while domestic ethylene prices dropped to 9,350 yuan/ton.
② Demand: Downstream buyers showed limited willingness to restock, with most adopting a wait-and-see approach.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices continued their downward trend today. The raw material EO market saw trading driven primarily by rigid demand, with spot prices offering slight discounts. Producers in the East China ethylene sector faced no immediate shipment pressure; however, low-priced supplies from peripheral regions prompted increased counter-offers for derivatives, leading some suppliers to offer minor price concessions. Despite cost-side support for EO, monomer prices declined again. Most downstream participants remained cautious and watchful, resulting in a quieter trading atmosphere. Consequently, the main market price for East China EPEG is projected at 10,800–11,300 yuan/ton for the next working day.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate for the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry stood at 24.21%, representing a month-on-month decline. The gross margin for HPEG was 521 yuan/ton.

4. Price Forecast

For the next working day, domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are expected to weaken further. The key raw material, ethylene oxide, may remain stable as supply-demand dynamics within the market balance out without significant contradictions. While there is no immediate supply pressure for ethylene domestically, the influx of some low-priced cargoes has led to moderate buying interest among downstream derivative users, potentially causing slight price softening. Cost-side support remains present. Downstream demand for monomer restocking appears insufficient, with buyers prioritizing risk avoidance through cautious small-lot releases and volume-based negotiations. Overall, the main market price for East China EPEG is forecasted to range between 10,800 and 11,300 yuan/ton.

5. Related Product Status

① Ethylene Oxide (Raw Material): EO prices are expected to maintain a high-level trend in the short term. On the supply side, falling prices for glycol have compressed profit margins for co-production units, creating expectations for some facilities to shift production toward EO. Additionally, one EO unit is scheduled to restart, suggesting potential increases in EO supply. On the demand side, various downstream industries are maintaining purchases based on rigid needs, but the market lacks substantial transaction volumes, and new order inflows are limited. Regarding costs, domestic ethylene spot supplies face no pressure, with buying interest still driven mainly by rigid demand, although counter-offering activity for derivatives has increased. Overall, fundamental fluctuations are limited, and EO prices are likely to trade steadily. Continued monitoring of upstream and downstream developments is recommended.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Data Overview (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub
Notes:
1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.