Downstream Resistance Emerges, Methanol Market Pulls Back (2026-09-11)

1. Today's Focus

① Inner Mongolia Rongxin methanol had a starting price of 3,690 yuan/mt for 2,000 mt; 700 mt was ultimately traded at that price, while the remainder failed to sell.

② Qitaihe Baotailong has no methanol quotation for now. Its 100,000 mt/year coke oven gas unit is restarting and is expected to produce product by the weekend.

2. Today's Market and Outlook

Table 1 Domestic Methanol and Related Product Price Summary (Unit: yuan/mt)

[Today's Comment] Today's methanol spot price index was 3,660.74, +15.99. Taicang spot price was 3,690, -105; Inner Mongolia North Line price was 3,695, +100. According to Chempricehub's monitoring of prices in 20 large and medium-sized cities, 13 cities recorded declines of varying degrees, ranging from 25 to 225 yuan/mt. Today the domestic methanol market was generally weak and moving lower. Futures retreated from highs, and combined with the earlier rapid rise, downstream resistance was relatively obvious. Expectations gradually emerged that some CTO units would sell methanol externally and some MTO units would reduce loads or shut down, and the overall trading atmosphere weakened noticeably. During the day, upstream auctions saw failed sales, while Lubei downstream receiving prices were sharply cut for procurement. In the short term, the market is expected to show an overall rangebound correction, with coastal areas likely to be relatively resistant to declines.

3. Basis

In the afternoon, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange weakened. The MA2610 contract opened at 3,550 yuan/mt, reached a high of 3,550 yuan/mt and a low of 3,311 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,380 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's settlement. As of the close, open interest in the MA2609 contract was 449,900 lots, down 87,700 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Updates

Table 2 Methanol and Downstream Production Updates Summary

5. Price Forecast

6. Today the domestic methanol market was generally weak and moving lower. Futures retreated from highs, and combined with the earlier rapid rise, downstream resistance was relatively obvious. Expectations gradually emerged that some CTO units would sell methanol externally and some MTO units would reduce loads or shut down, and the overall trading atmosphere weakened noticeably. During the day, upstream auctions saw failed sales, while Lubei downstream receiving prices were sharply cut for procurement. In the short term, the market is expected to show an overall rangebound correction, with coastal areas likely to be relatively resistant to declines.

7. In the medium to long term, as more enterprises increase methanol external sales and downstream units shut down due to resistance to high-priced methanol, the domestic methanol spot tightness has eased somewhat. With the market gradually retreating from earlier high prices, it is necessary to observe the restart situation of methanol plant facilities and the extent of downstream demand reduction to see whether they can continue to provide support.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3 Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Practitioner Sentiment Expectations

7. Related Products

Glacial acetic acid: Today domestic glacial acetic acid market prices continued to rise. Raw material support was strong, and factory offers continued to be raised. Downstream mainly purchased on demand, while traders showed a strong reluctance to sell, pushing the market trading center upward. In the short term, fundamentals remain firm, and the glacial acetic acid market is expected to remain strong, with room for further upward movement in the price center.

Formaldehyde: Today the formaldehyde market was stable and consolidating. Raw material methanol fell sharply; the earlier excessive cost increase had continuously squeezed product profits, which has now eased somewhat. Downstream participants were mostly cautious and wait-and-see, waiting for price cuts, but factories had a strong willingness to keep prices stable, leaving market trading at a standstill. Chempricehub expects a certain rational correction in the formaldehyde market in the short term, but the extent will be limited.

Dimethyl ether: Today the dimethyl ether market was stable and consolidating, with local catch-up gains. The methanol feedstock center weakened, easing cost pressure somewhat. Regions that had earlier successfully followed the gains stabilized and continued to trade, while the Southwest saw lagged cost pass-through and catch-up gains; overall buying and selling activity was average. Chempricehub expects the dimethyl ether market to move sideways in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4 Domestic Methanol Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 mt)

Note: 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuation, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%.