Introduction: Recently, the domestic allyl chloride market has seen a significant upward trend, driven by rising raw material costs and reduced supply. As of October 15, the average price in the Shandong market reached 9,500 RMB/ton, marking a week-on-week increase of 4.40%.
The current rally in allyl chloride prices is primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including cost support and tightened supply.
Quotes for key raw materials, liquid chlorine and propylene, have remained firm. Upstream propylene prices have sustained levels above 10,000 RMB/ton due to plant shutdowns and post-holiday restocking, providing solid cost support for this rise in allyl chloride. Meanwhile, regional tightness in the liquid chlorine market has led enterprises to raise their offers, further increasing the overall production cost of allyl chloride.
Supply Side: Increased Plant Disruptions Lead to Tight Spot Availability
| Metric | Oct 2–Oct 8 | Oct 9–Oct 15 | Change | WoW % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily Production (10k tons) | 1.48 | 1.27 | -0.21 | -14.19% |
Data Source: Chempricehub
Operating loads at multiple domestic allyl chloride plants have been reduced, leading to a noticeable contraction in tradable spot supply. In Jiangsu, Ruiheng’s unit remains shut down. In Shandong, Zhonghai Fine Chemicals is operating at low load with limited external sales volume. Binhua has entered its column cleaning maintenance cycle, resulting in significantly reduced output. Additionally, Shandong Sanyue plans to shut down one production line, further compressing regional tradable supply. Market spot inventories remain generally low, factory order schedules are tight, and sentiment has shifted towards holding stock in anticipation of higher prices. According to Chempricehub statistics, weekly production from Oct 9 to Oct 15 was 12,700 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons compared to the previous week. This reduction in supply has become the core driver of the current price increase.
Demand Side: Divergent Downstream Demand, Weak Willingness to Chase High Prices
| Process Route | Oct 2–Oct 8 | Oct 9–Oct 15 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene Method | 100% | 95% | -5% |
| Hydrogen Peroxide Method | 50% | 50% | 0.0 |
Data Source: Chempricehub
Epichlorohydrin (ECH), the most critical downstream product for allyl chloride, shows divergent operating rates across different process routes. Notably, the operating rate of propylene-method units—which directly consume allyl chloride—has dropped from 100% to 95%, indicating weakened essential demand. The hydrogen peroxide method does not consume allyl chloride; its operating rate remained stable at 50%, having no direct impact on the allyl chloride market.
Price transmission to downstream products faces a lag, as the rise in ECH prices has not kept pace with the increase in raw material allyl chloride, limiting profit recovery for downstream producers. Facing high raw material costs, downstream factories are largely adopting an "as-needed" purchasing strategy, buying only what they immediately require, with little proactive large-scale stockpiling. There is a clear ceiling on the market's acceptance of high-priced allyl chloride, making it difficult to form a sustained upward demand-driven momentum.
In the short term, upstream propylene and liquid chlorine show no obvious signs of weakening, continuing to provide strong cost support for allyl chloride. Following this round of price increases, although there is still some follow-through from essential downstream demand, the operating rate of propylene-method ECH has already declined. Profit margins for derivatives are under pressure, limiting further room for price increases.
On the supply side, key focus points include the duration of Binhua’s maintenance, the actual implementation of Sanyue’s shutdown, and load adjustments at Zhonghai Fine Chemicals.
| Enterprise Name | Capacity (10k tons/year) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| (Note: Specific capacity data was not provided in the source text table structure, but context implies major players) |
Correction based on input structure: The input did not provide a specific enterprise capacity table with numbers, only mentioned names. Therefore, no fabricated table rows are added. The analysis relies on the narrative provided.
If these factors lead to further supply constraints while cost supports hold, prices may maintain strength. However, given the downstream resistance to high prices and shrinking profit margins, the potential for substantial further upside is limited.
Comments
0