I. Key Points
(1) Last week, the prices of the two major raw materials—propylene and glycerin—declined within a narrow range. The negotiated price for Shandong propylene was referenced at 10,675 CNY/ton, while the negotiated price for East China 99.5% glycerin was referenced at 8,900 CNY/ton.
(2) Last week, the average price of Shandong propylene was 10,706 CNY/ton, and the average price of liquid chlorine was 340 CNY/ton. As of the close on October 16, the weekly average theoretical profit margin for epichlorohydrin (ECH) produced via the propylene route stood at 421 CNY/ton.
(3) Last week, the domestic ECH industry’s weekly average capacity utilization rate was 44.51%, representing a decrease of 2.58 percentage points compared to the previous week.
(4) Last week, the domestic epoxy resin industry’s weekly average market capacity utilization rate was 51.07%, an increase of 7.41 percentage points from the previous period. Specifically, the capacity utilization rates for liquid and solid epoxy resins were 53.35% and 39.13%, respectively.
Core Logic: Amid cost pressures and supply-demand dynamics, market sentiment remains supportive of higher prices. Producers and traders are largely maintaining firm quotes; however, downstream buyers are only replenishing based on rigid demand, resulting in generally subdued trading activity.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 16 | Oct 10 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | North China | 10675 | 10550 | +125 |
| Glycerin | East China | 8900 | 8950 | -50 |
| Epichlorohydrin (ECH) | East China | 11250 | 11050 | +200 |
| E-51 Epoxy Resin (Net Water Ex-factory) | East China | 15000-15300 | 14800-15200 | +200 / +100 |
III. Data Table
| ECH Industry Supply & Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Oct 16 | Oct 10 | Change Rate | Weekly Outlook |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 44.51% | 44.8% | -0.29% | ↓ |
| Propylene Route Production Profit (CNY/ton) | 421 | 681 | -38.18% | ↑ |
| Glycerin Route Production Profit (CNY/ton) | -710 | -917 | +22.57% | ↑ |
| Note: 1. Capacity utilization rate refers to the ratio of actual output to production capacity for operating units, reflecting production levels. | ||||
| Note: 2. Production profit margin is an industry-level metric reflecting the overall profitability across mainstream regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to the average price. |
IV. Market Outlook
Last week, the domestic ECH market exhibited a trend of price resilience and rebound. High cost pressures showed no significant relief, and some ECH units in regions such as Shandong and Jiangsu reduced loads or shut down, leading to tight spot supply. Consequently, vendors’ willingness to support prices strengthened, prompting continuous increases in ex-factory prices. However, downstream buyers remained cautious regarding high prices, limiting transactions to small orders driven by rigid demand. With limited release of real deals, trading activity weighed on the market. At the beginning of this week, ECH prices are expected to undergo minor adjustments within a narrow range. Further monitoring of market trading dynamics is required.
Comments
0