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Ethanol Market Morning Brief

Published on 2026-10-22

I. Key Focus Areas

  1. October 21: While instability in the Middle East persists, both Russia and Ukraine have hinted at willingness to negotiate, leading to mixed movements in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) closed at $97.15/bbl, down $0.67/bbl (-0.68%); ICE Brent futures (December contract) closed at $108.82/bbl, up $0.03/bbl (+0.03%). China INE crude oil futures (December 2026 contract) fell by 26.5 yuan to 700.8 yuan/bbl, with night session prices dropping another 10.5 yuan to 690.3 yuan/bbl.

Core Logic:

  1. Food-grade Ethanol: Yesterday, regional food-grade ethanol prices fluctuated due to changes in local production units, while overall regional operations remained stable.
  2. Anhydrous Ethanol: Yesterday, anhydrous ethanol market prices remained stable with minor consolidation.
  3. Fuel Ethanol: Yesterday, fuel ethanol market prices trended downward with consolidation; independent refineries adjusted their procurement prices downward accordingly.
  4. Coal-based Ethanol: Yesterday, coal-based ethanol market offers remained stable.

II. Price Table

Unit: Yuan/ton, USD/barrel

Chempricehub Daily Briefing on Ethanol and Related Fuel Products

Product Region 2026/10/21 2026/10/20 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 97.15 101.79 -0.67
Brent 108.82 108.79 +0.03
Domestic Gasoline Guideline Price (89#) 8475 8475 Shandong
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 245-245 245-245 FOB, USD/ton
Converted Delivered Price 1993-1993 1993-1993 East China, Yuan/ton
Corn (Factory Gate) Heilongjiang 1988-2037 1988-2037 Heilongjiang
Jilin 2050-2100 2050-2100 Jilin
Henan 2130-2140 2130-2140 Jiaozuo dried grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2202-2202 2202-2202 Weifang dried grain, 14% moisture
Standard Grade Heilongjiang (East) 5050-5150 5050-5150 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (West) 5180-5200 5180-5200 Corn-based
Jilin 5200-5250 5200-5250 Corn-based
Shandong - - Cassava-based, ex-factory
Shandong 5650-5700 5550-5650 +100/+100 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5750-5750 5750-5750 Cassava-based
Southern Jiangsu 5850-5930 5850-5930 Cassava-based, ex-factory
Anhui 5800-5850 5800-5850 Grain/Cassava-based
Guangxi 5700-5800 5700-5800 Molasses/Cassava-based
Premium Grade Heilongjiang 5100-5200 5100-5200 East/West, Corn-based
Jilin 5300-5450 5300-5450 Corn-based
Shandong 5700-5750 5600-5700 +100/+50 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5800-5800 5800-5800
Henan 5680-5700 5650-5650 +30/+50 Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (Standard) 5700-5850 5700-5850 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5950-6000 5950-6000 Corn-based
Jilin (Standard) 5800-5870 5800-5870 Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5900-5920 5900-5920 Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Henan (Standard) 6300-6300 6200-6250 +100/+50 Corn-based
Henan (Electronic Grade) 6350-6350 6300-6300 +50/+50 Corn-based, no stock available
Northern Jiangsu 6450-6500 6450-6500 Cassava-based
Anhui 6450-6500 6450-6500 Grain/Cassava-based
Guangxi 6500-6600 6500-6600 Cassava-based
Port Jinzhou Port 5500-5500 5500-5500 Standard grade, Corn-based
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5800-6087 5800-6087 High-end price is delivered in Heilongjiang
Heilongjiang (West) 5800-6087 5800-6087 High-end price is delivered in Heilongjiang
Liaoning 6000-6317 6000-6317 Delivered price in Liaoning
Jilin 6237-6237 6237-6237 Delivered price in Jilin
Panjin Independent Refinery (Delivered) - -
Shandong Independent Refinery (Delivered) 5880-5880 5880-5880 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Starting Bid 5750 5750 Online starting bid price
Anhui Starting Bid 6010 6010 Online starting bid price
Henan Standard 6100 6100 Quote, negotiable upon transaction
Henan High-end - - Shutdown
Shandong 6250 6250 Shutdown
Hunan 6100 6100 Quote, negotiable upon transaction
Hebei 6300 6300 Quote, negotiable upon transaction
Hubei 6100 6100 Quote, negotiable upon transaction
Guangdong 6650 6650 Quote, negotiable upon transaction
Ethyl Acetate East China (Ex-pickup) 6450-6770 6550-6920 -100/-150
MTBE Shandong (Ex-pickup) 8150-8250 8100-8200 +50/+50
DDGS Heilongjiang 2080-2200 2080-2200
Jilin 2170-2270 2170-2270
Henan 2230-2230 2230-2230
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang - Shandong 480-560 480-560 Standard Ethanol
Henan - Shandong 100-200 100-200
East Heilongjiang - Shandong 400-440 400-440 Standard Ethanol
Northwest - Shandong 270-310 270-310
Mengzhou - Chengdu 360-390 360-390 Return empty trucks are relatively cheap

III. Data Table

Data Type This Week Last Week Expected Trend
Cassava Ethanol Profit -279.51 -279.51 ↗
Corn Ethanol Profit -138.75 -138.75 ↗
Coal-based Ethanol Profit 300 300 ↗
Remarks: 1. Cassava ethanol profit refers to production profit for cassava ethanol in Northern Jiangsu, East China. 2. Corn ethanol profit refers to production profit for corn ethanol in Heilongjiang, Northeast China. 3. Molasses ethanol profit refers to production profit for molasses ethanol in southern markets.

Unit: Yuan/ton

IV. Market Outlook

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Prices in Northeast China are stable as orders are being shipped. Prices in East China are stable as downstream sectors absorb recent increases in the short term. Prices in Henan are stable in the short term but may decline once suspended plants resume operations. Coal-based ethanol prices are stable with contract order shipments, resulting in no inventory pressure in the short term. Fuel ethanol prices are slightly weak, with some sellers showing a positive attitude towards offloading inventory.

Data Release Time Current Value Expected Trend
Ethanol Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 59.19% ↗
Ethyl Acetate Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 51.08% ↗
Remarks: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.

Chempricehub Daily Briefing on Ethanol and Related Fuel Products

Product Region 2025/10/28 2025/10/27 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 60.15 61.31 -1.16
Brent 64.4 65.62 -1.22
Domestic Gasoline Guideline Price (89#) 7969 7969 Shandong
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 212-215 212-215 FOB, USD/ton
Converted Delivered Price 1828-1856 1828-1856 East China, Yuan/ton
Corn (Factory Gate) Heilongjiang 1955-2002 1955-2002 Heilongjiang
Jilin 2010-2090 2020-2090 -10/0 Jilin
Henan 2200-2210 2200-2210 Jiaozuo dried grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2170-2170 2160-2160 +10/+10 Weifang dried grain, 14% moisture
Standard Grade Heilongjiang (East) 4820-4830 4820-4830 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (West) 4850-4900 4850-4900 Corn-based
Jilin 4950-5050 4950-5050 Corn-based
Shandong 5400-5400 5400-5400 Cassava-based, ex-factory
Shandong 5150-5300 5150-5300 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5300-5300 5300-5300 Cassava-based
Southern Jiangsu 5400-5400 5400-5400 Cassava-based, ex-factory
Anhui 5350-5350 5350-5350 Grain/Cassava-based
Guangxi 5650-5700 5650-5700 Cassava-based
Premium Grade Heilongjiang 4900-4950 4900-4950 East/West, Corn-based
Jilin 5100-5450 5100-5450 Corn-based
Shandong 5300-5350 5300-5350 Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5380-5380 5380-5380
Henan 5230-5250 5230-5250 Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (Standard) 5400-5450 5400-5450 Corn-based
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5450-5500 5450-5500 Corn-based
Jilin (Standard) 5500-5850 5500-5850 Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5650-5950 5650-5950 Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Henan (Standard) 5900-5950 5900-5950 Corn-based
Henan (Electronic Grade) - - Corn-based, no stock available
Northern Jiangsu 5900-5900 5900-5900 Cassava-based
Anhui 5900-5950 5900-5950 Grain/Cassava-based
Guangxi 6350-6450 6350-6450 Cassava-based
Port Jinzhou Port 5100-5200 5100-5200 Standard grade, Corn-based
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5200-5200 5200-5200
Heilongjiang (West) 5250-5250 5250-5250
Liaoning 5500-5500 5500-5500
Jilin 5400-5400 5400-5400
Panjin Independent Refinery (Delivered) - -
Shandong Independent Refinery (Delivered) 5250-5250 5260-5290 -10/-40 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Starting Bid 5450 5450 Online quote
Anhui Starting Bid 5400 - Online starting bid price
Henan Standard 5800 5800 Hydrogenation of acetate esters
Henan High-end - - Quote (Unit shut down on the 13th)
Shandong 5400 5460 -60 Quote
Hunan 5600 5600 Quote
Hebei 5600 5600 Quote, negotiable upon transaction
Guangdong - -
Guangdong High-end 5950 6100 -150 High-end, purity 99.9%
Ethyl Acetate East China (Ex-pickup) 5140-5200 5140-5200
MTBE Shandong (Ex-pickup) 4850-4950 4900-4950 -50/0
DDGS Heilongjiang 2030-2150 2030-2150
Jilin 1950-2250 1950-2250
Henan 2330-2330 2330-2330
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang - Shandong 280-300 280-300 Standard Ethanol
Henan - Shandong 100-200 100-200
East Heilongjiang - Shandong 330-370 330-370 Fuel Ethanol
Northwest - Shandong 260-270 260-270
Mengzhou - Chengdu 250-300 250-300 Return empty trucks are relatively cheap

Comments

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  • Sarah Mitchell 2026-10-22 20:05
    Fuel ethanol’s slight dip amid stable feedstock costs signals softening downstream demand. While crude volatility persists, I see margin pressure on refiners as inventory offloading continues, keeping capacity utilizati..
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