I. Key Focus Points
9/25: Iran has proposed a seven-day plan to the United States to promote peace negotiations. If accepted by the U.S., the Strait of Hormuz will be fully opened, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $92.41/bbl, down $2.20/bbl (-2.33% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $104.32/bbl, down $2.28/bbl (-2.14% WoW). China's INE crude oil futures market was closed due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.
9/25: The port-based ethylene USD price (CFR Northeast Asia) stood at $1,180/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.
9/24: The daily capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry was 49.26%.
II. Price Table
| Market | Specification | Sep 23 | Sep 24 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | / | 9700 | 9700 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Central China | / | 10100 | 10100 | 0 | 0.00% |
| North China | / | 9500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% |
| South China | / | 9700 | 9700 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Northeast China | / | 9500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Key Downstream Products | |||||
| East China | Polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer EPEG | 11750 | 11450 | -300 | -2.55% |
| Data Source: Chempricehub News |
| Remarks: 1. The two periods refer to spot prices on the past two working days, not weekly averages. 2. All RMB prices in the table above are ex-factory cash-with-tax prices. 3. Percentage change refers to week-on-week variation. 4. Unit: CNY/ton |
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III. Market Outlook
The ethylene oxide market is expected to remain stable today. On the supply side, monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices have retreated from highs, reducing the profit advantage for co-production units producing MEG. Some units anticipate switching production to ethylene oxide, combined with plans for some units to restart operations, which may lead to an increase in ethylene oxide supply. The main downstream industries are purchasing based on rigid demand, with actual transactions dominating discussions; there is a lack of significant volume growth to drive trades. On the cost side, domestic ethylene spot availability is limited, with contracted cargo being dominant. The market for downstream derivatives remains weak, with transactions primarily driven by rigid demand. Ethylene prices may fluctuate within a range; while cost support persists, momentum for price increases is limited. Overall, short-term supply and cost factors continue to support prices, keeping ethylene oxide prices firm. Continued attention should be paid to changes in upstream and downstream dynamics.
| Data Item | Release Date | Previous Period Data | Expected Trend for Current Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Production | Thursday 16:00 PM | 115,400 tons | ↗ |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | Thursday 16:00 PM | 51.82% | ↗ |
| Profit Margin for Imported Ethylene Route | Thursday 16:00 PM | 11,930 CNY/ton | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data with percentage changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicate narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with percentage changes between 0-3%. |
Data Source: Chempricehub News
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