Ethylene Tar Market Average Price Rises (August 2026)

1. Market focus points this month

① Despite the US imposing stricter economic sanctions on Iran, mediators continue to push for negotiations between the two sides.

② Mediators indicate that the US and Iran have largely reached consensus on a ceasefire agreement. The market is cautiously weighing the possibility of both sides returning to talks, though bilateral relations remain unclear.

③ Reports suggest the US side has refused to re-implement the terms of the memorandum of understanding, leaving the US-Iran situation fraught with uncertainty.

2. This month's market analysis

Domestic ethylene tar oil markets in major regions remained stable with upward trends this month. On the cost side, international crude oil moved higher overall, raising feedstock costs for ethylene plants and providing strong cost support for ethylene tar oil. On the supply-demand front, downstream industries mainly purchased on an as-needed basis, with rigid demand underpinning the market. Market supply flows remained relatively stable, while industry participants held mixed wait-and-see sentiments. Supported by the upward push from the related product high-temperature coal tar oil and other bullish factors, ethylene tar oil prices strengthened in most regions, with only the Northeast area holding steady. Regional price differentials were primarily influenced by plant operating rates, downstream demand, and regional product supply flows. Overall, the August ethylene tar oil market showed a pattern of stability with gains and localized divergence.

3. Changes in factors affecting ethylene tar oil and related markets

Monthly fluctuations of products in the ethylene tar oil industry chain (unit: yuan/ton)

Source: Chempricehub

4. Forecast for next month

Cost forecast: International oil prices are expected to have room for decline. On the supply side, ongoing US-Iran tensions continue to disrupt the market, though multiple mediators have established communication channels. In September, there is an expectation of some restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, though unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels; the risk of disruptions to Middle East crude exports persists. Major producing countries maintain resilient output, with room for growth in global crude supply, yet the overall pattern of demand outstripping supply will continue. On the demand side, the US summer driving season is nearing its end, with seasonal support fading; refineries in the Northern Hemisphere are successively entering autumn maintenance periods, putting sequential pressure on crude processing demand. Although Asian refineries have restart expectations, limited by Middle East crude arrival constraints, the room for operating rate increases is capped, and global crude demand lacks upward drivers. On the monetary policy front, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September has increased, with market attention shifting to an October hike. US inflation and employment data will continue to revise rate hike expectations, and dollar fluctuations will create periodic disturbances for crude oil. Geopolitically, the US-Iran standoff is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the risk of localized frictions remains, though the market is gradually digesting the current conflict situation. Qatari and Pakistani mediation efforts are progressing incrementally, with a low probability of a breakthrough agreement in September. However, as tensions cool somewhat, the geopolitical risk premium may slowly decline. In summary, international crude oil prices are expected to have room for decline in September 2026. The core logic is that as the geopolitical premium is gradually digested, seasonal fundamental weakening is likely to dominate September's market movement. If US-Iran mediation achieves substantial progress and Strait navigation improves, downward pressure on oil prices will be further amplified. WTI is expected to trade in the range of $77–87/barrel, with Brent in the range of $83–93/barrel.

Forecast for homogeneous product — high-temperature coal tar oil: Overall, the high-temperature coal tar market is currently characterized by strong cost push, gradually contracting supply, and medium-to-high operating demand. The latest price increase is still driven by the tight supply of high-temperature coal tar oil. Given no significant output cuts at downstream plants, the tight supply situation is unlikely to fundamentally change in the short term. However, given the significant upward pressure on end-product prices, the room for further coal tar oil gains is limited, and a pullback cannot be ruled out. The overall high-price pattern is nevertheless difficult to change.

Forecast for homogeneous product — fuel oil market: International oil prices are expected to have room for decline, providing weak cost-side support. Overall market trading sentiment is cautious, with participants mainly taking a wait-and-see approach and following rigid demand. On the supply side, the supply gap in low-sulfur residue/asphalt from domestic mainstream refineries continues; combined with expectations of the traditional September peak consumption season, market purchasing willingness has somewhat increased. Tight feedstock resources plus recovering seasonal demand expectations jointly support bunker fuel costs. On the demand side, port bunker refueling from shipowners in September will continue to be driven by rigid consumption, mostly in concentrated refueling batches, with market transactions primarily scattered small orders. Downstream bunker fuel traders and port refueling companies maintain strong risk-aversion, generally implementing a sell-to-buy procurement model with insufficient willingness to build inventory proactively. Overall demand has yet to see a substantive recovery. The average price of marine 180CST is expected to be approximately 5,750 yuan/ton in September 2026, up 83 yuan/ton month-on-month, an increase of 1.46%.

Forecast for downstream carbon black: The carbon black market price in September is expected to show high-level volatility. Early in the month, the market will continue the previous high-level operation. Additionally, supported by rigid demand in the feedstock coal tar oil market, new order prices will consolidate at high levels. The strong cost side continues to benefit the market. Downstream tire companies are purchasing on rigid demand, with insufficient demand-side support. Overall, driven by positive factors, new carbon black orders are expected to maintain a firm trend.

Ethylene tar oil forecast: International crude oil is expected to have room for decline, which will weaken cost-side support for ethylene tar oil. On the supply side, in September, domestic Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical and Hainan Refining & Chemical plants plan to restart, but CNOOC Shell will enter its maintenance period during the same period. Combined with the lighter feedstock trend at ethylene plants, incremental ethylene tar oil output will be limited, keeping overall supply relatively stable. On the demand side, downstream industries are entering the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season, and market procurement demand is expected to recover somewhat. However, downstream enterprises generally maintain a heavy risk-aversion stance this year, with insufficient willingness for large-scale restocking. Downstream rigid demand provides a certain floor for the market, and the high-level operation of high-temperature coal tar oil offers comparative price support, creating bullish factors for ethylene tar oil. However, the seasonal weakening of crude fundamentals and the gradual decline of the geopolitical risk premium will weaken the cost-side impetus, capping the upside for ethylene tar oil. Market prices are likely to face conflicting upward and downward pressures. In summary, domestic ethylene tar oil in September is expected to maintain high-level volatile operation, with prices likely firm in the early period but facing pullback risk later in the month as crude oil weakens.

For more monthly market analyses, please refer to the Chempricehub Ethylene Tar Oil Monthly Report.