Ethylene Tar Market Prices Decline (October 2026)

1. Key Market Focus for the Month

① The conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia remains unresolved, with market concerns that the conflict risk may continue to spill over into the energy sector.

② Geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine remain unstable. However, the US has exempted certain sanctions against Russia, leading to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish market sentiments.

③ Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have agreed to consult on strengthening regional peace and security cooperation and will continue talks. This has slightly eased market concerns about short-term escalation of conflicts.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Ethylene Tar Market Price Change Table (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Domestic ethylene tar prices generally followed a trend of declining first and then stabilizing this month. After the National Day holiday, prices experienced a significant catch-up decline, before stabilizing in the mid-to-late part of the month. The market lacked directional guidance, and most participants adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The price of its homogeneous substitute, high-temperature coal tar, was prone to rising rather than falling, creating a psychological floor for ethylene tar through relative pricing comparisons and limiting its further downside. The core downstream carbon black industry faced cost pressures and resistance to high-priced raw materials, with negative feedback from the demand side continuing to suppress the upside potential of ethylene tar. Overall, under the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, mainstream ethylene tar prices in October held steady but lacked upward momentum.

3. Next Month Forecast:

Cost Forecast: International crude oil prices are expected to have room for increase. On the supply side, uncertainty persists regarding Middle East shipping routes, with significant fluctuations in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Coupled with continued Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities and low passage levels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, supply disruption risks remain persistent. On the demand side, global crude oil demand recovery is overall slow. Operating rates at some Asian refineries are low, and Russian refinery processing loads are suppressed by attacks. Meanwhile, the peak season for US fuel consumption ended in September, causing seasonal positives to fade, resulting in limited overall demand support for oil prices. Regarding monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains high, with expectations of at least one more rate hike within the year. Short-term policy maintains a wait-and-see stance, so the impact of the US dollar on oil prices may be limited, though potential suppression from future rate hike expectations warrants caution. Geopolitically, geopolitical tensions are the current market focus. Before the US midterm elections, the Middle East situation may stabilize temporarily; however, after the elections, the possibility of military friction between the US and Iran remains. The Houthi-Saudi conflict continues, and while there are signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, an immediate ceasefire is unlikely, keeping market concerns about geopolitical instability alive. Overall, international crude oil prices in November 2026 are expected to rise, driven primarily by the sustained tension in the Middle East, the ongoing stalemate in US-Iran relations, and continuous Houthi harassment of Saudi Arabia. These geopolitical risks provide strong bottom support for oil prices in the short term. WTI is projected to trade in the range of $95-108/barrel, and Brent in the range of $109-122/barrel.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast: As November enters winter, pressure to secure coal supplies increases, while terminal steel demand weakens. Both futures and spot prices for coke lack upward drivers, squeezing coking enterprises' profits and keeping operating rates relatively low. Consequently, incremental output of high-temperature coal tar is limited, leading to tight circulation of available supply. Downstream industries such as deep processing and carbon black maintain relatively stable winter operating loads, sustaining rigid procurement demand for high-temperature coal tar. This widens the supply-demand gap, supporting high-level coal tar prices. However, looking at downstream product trends, profitability in deep processing sectors is generally thin, limiting acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Carbon black enterprises remain in loss-making positions, showing strong resistance to high-priced coal tar. Therefore, coal tar prices in November are expected to retreat slightly from October's highs. Key factors to monitor include the intensity of coking enterprise production cuts, changes in deep processing product profitability, and regional supply circulation rhythms.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast: While international oil prices have room to rise, providing some cost support, domestic marine fuel oil demand enters the off-season, keeping overall trading sentiment cautious. On the supply side, domestic major refiners maintain stable supply of low-sulfur residue/asphalt, mainly directed towards coking units. Marine fuel operators adhere to rigid demand; however, fuel oil feedstock resources may still face periodic tightness, providing bottom support for marine fuel costs. On the demand side, ship owners' bunkering needs at ports in November remain rigid, but market transactions are scattered and mostly small-scale. Bunkering suppliers exhibit strong risk-aversion, generally adopting a "procure based on sales" model, with transactions negotiated individually. The average monthly price for Marine 180CST in November 2026 is forecast at 7,150 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 133 CNY/ton or 1.90%.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast: Carbon black market prices in November are expected to trend sideways with a slight downward bias. Regarding raw materials, coal tar prices are pressured by downstream product prices, making it difficult to push prices higher. However, as downstream industries enter November with relatively stable operating rates, rigid demand will limit coal tar price volatility. New carbon black orders will have some price support due to cost factors. Nevertheless, considering the sluggishness of the downstream terminal market, the upside potential for carbon black prices is limited, likely resulting in low-level fluctuating operations.

Comprehensive Ethylene Tar Outlook: In November, ethylene tar prices are highly likely to continue ranging consolidation, characterized by "supported bottoms and lacking upward drivers." A trend-based decline is unlikely, but rebound space is also limited, with mainstream prices expected to fluctuate narrowly around current levels.

• Cost Support: If international oil prices maintain high-level fluctuations, they will continue to build a bottom for ethylene tar from the cost perspective.

• Tight Supply: The trend of lighter feedstocks for ethylene cracking continues, restricting the yield of ethylene tar as a by-product. The tight supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term.

• Substitute Price Floor: If high-temperature coal tar stabilizes or strengthens, it will limit the downside space for ethylene tar. The two products are substitutes in the carbon black raw material sector, and price differentials may guide some demand towards ethylene tar.

• Suppressive Factors: Weak demand remains the key constraint.

  • Downstream Resistance to High Prices: The core downstream carbon black industry is under cost pressure and resistant to high-priced raw materials, maintaining a "buy-as-needed" strategy and failing to form concentrated stockpiling behavior.
  • Negative Demand Signals: Some carbon black enterprises face losses and anticipate production cuts. Additionally, maintenance plans at downstream tire enterprises may gradually materialize. Weakening terminal demand will transmit upstream, suppressing purchasing enthusiasm for ethylene tar.

• Key Variable: The critical anchor for November's trend lies in the price direction of high-temperature coal tar. If coal tar auction prices weaken, the cost-floor logic for ethylene tar will loosen, potentially shifting the price center lower. Conversely, if coal tar remains firm, ethylene tar will continue to hold current price levels, awaiting new guidance from the demand side. Overall, the market lacks unilateral forces to break the deadlock in November. Mainstream prices in North China are expected to fluctuate around the current level of 4,850 CNY/ton, remaining generally stable with localized narrow adjustments.

For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Ethylene Tar Monthly Report.