Preface: Recently, the refined oil prices at Shandong independent refineries have risen for both gasoline and diesel. Among them, the price of 92# gasoline reached 7,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton or 1.88% month-on-month; the price of 0# diesel reached 7,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 171 yuan/ton or 2.43% month-on-month. Supported by the rebound of gasoline prices, sales of aromatic-related products improved and their prices continuously rose.

1. Gasoline rebounded, driving up aromatic-related product prices

After the holiday, gasoline demand dropped sharply, and with the start of the coastal fishing moratorium on May 1, demand from the fishing industry decreased significantly, leading to overall weak demand for both gasoline and diesel. However, affected by geopolitical tensions, international crude oil prices recovered, and after stabilizing, the gasoline and diesel prices at Shandong independent refineries once again showed an upward trend. Supported by rising gasoline prices, aromatic-related products first fell and then rose after the holiday, increasing from 5,985 yuan/ton to 6,400 yuan/ton.

2. Comparative analysis of product price changes

Recently, the refined oil market at Shandong independent refineries mainly trended upward. The price of 92# gasoline was 7,980 yuan/ton, up 147 yuan/ton or 1.88% month-on-month; the price of 0# diesel was 7,210 yuan/ton, up 171 yuan/ton or 2.43% month-on-month. With the continuous rise in gasoline prices, support for aromatic-related products was positive, and aromatic products mainly followed the upward trend. Moreover, auction premiums in the market ranged from 10 to 200 yuan/ton, and aromatic-related products rose to around 6,220 to 6,580 yuan/ton.

3. Analysis of market demand changes

From the perspective of recent production and sales, in May, during the holiday period, shipments of aromatic-related products were poor, with the production-sales ratio only around 20-40%. After the holiday, the atmosphere for downstream replenishment was initially weak, with the production-sales ratio around 30%. Later, supported by rising gasoline prices, downstream customers showed moderate enthusiasm for replenishment, with auction premiums. Additionally, one factory was scheduled for maintenance shutdown later, so external sales were suspended recently, reducing the available resources in the market. The overall production-sales ratio was near 90%, and the improvement in transactions provided significant support for price increases.

4. Market outlook

In the short term, domestic demand remains weak, gasoline inventories are high, and the willingness to purchase raw materials is insufficient. International crude oil still has room for further decline. In terms of market sentiment and gasoline retail prices, support for aromatics in the market is insufficient. Overall, the market still lacks sustained demand support in the short term and tends to follow gasoline price fluctuations, with prices likely to fall from high levels.