Ethanol & Fuel Ethanol Market Morning Report

1. Key Focus Points

Oct 29: Mediators continue to push for US-Iran peace talks, causing international oil prices to fall. However, conflict risks have not been eliminated, limiting the extent of the decline.

NYMEX Crude Oil Futures (Dec Contract): Closed at $102/bbl, down $0.78/bbl (-0.76% vs previous session).
ICE Brent Crude Futures (Dec Contract): Closed at $114.88/bbl, down $0.44/bbl (-0.38% vs previous session).
China INE Crude Oil Futures (2612 Contract): Rose by 13.5 yuan/bbl to 735.9 yuan/bbl during the day session; fell by 14.4 yuan/bbl to 721.5 yuan/bbl during the night session.

Core Logic:

Food-grade Ethanol: Yesterday, regional market prices for standard food-grade ethanol fluctuated slightly due to changes in plant operations across different regions.
Anhydrous Ethanol: Yesterday, anhydrous ethanol market prices remained stable and consolidated.
Fuel Ethanol: Yesterday, fuel ethanol market prices remained stable with consolidation. Independent refinery purchase prices saw a slight upward adjustment.
Coal-based Ethanol: Yesterday, coal-based ethanol market quotes trended downward amid volatility.

2. Price Table

Product	Region	2026/10/29	2026/10/28	Change	Remarks
Crude Oil	WTI	102	102.78	-0.78	USD/bbl
	Brent	114.88	115.32	-0.44	USD/bbl
Domestic Gasoline Guidance Price (89#)	Shandong	8475	8475		CNY/ton
Dried Cassava Chips	Thailand	240-245	240-245		FOB, USD/ton
Converted to Plant Gate Price	East China	1947-1984	1947-1984		CNY/ton
Corn (Plant Intake)	Heilongjiang	1988-2037	1988-2037
	Jilin	2070-2100	2070-2100
	Henan	2160-2170	2160-2170		Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
	Shandong	2240-2240	2240-2240		Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Standard Grade Ethanol	Heilongjiang (East)	5100-5150	5100-5150		Corn-based
	Heilongjiang (West)	5180-5200	5180-5200		Corn-based
	Jilin	5250-5330	5200-5280	+50/+50	Corn-based
	Shandong	-	-		Cassava-based, ex-factory
	Shandong	5650-5700	5650-5700		Wheat-based
	Northern Jiangsu	5750-5780	5750-5780		Cassava-based
	Southern Jiangsu	5850-5930	5850-5930		Cassava-based, ex-factory
	Anhui	5750-5800	5750-5800		Grain/Cassava
	Guangxi	5600-5800	5600-5800		Molasses/Cassava
Premium Grade Ethanol	Heilongjiang	5150-5250	5150-5250		East/West, Corn-based
	Jilin	5400-5450	5350-5450	+50/0	Corn-based
	Shandong	5700-5750	5700-5750		Wheat-based
	Northern Jiangsu	5800-5800	5800-5800
	Henan	5650-5660	5650-5660		Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol	Heilongjiang (Standard)	5700-5850	5700-5850		Corn-based
	Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade)	5950-6000	5950-6000		Corn-based
	Jilin (Standard)	5800-5850	5800-5850		Corn-based, transactions mainly at low end
	Jilin (Electronic Grade)	5900-5920	5900-5920		Corn-based, transactions mainly at low end
	Henan (Standard)	6250-6250	6250-6250		Corn-based
	Henan (Electronic Grade)	6300-6300	6300-6300		Corn-based, no stock available
	Northern Jiangsu	6450-6500	6450-6500		Cassava-based
	Anhui	6450-6500	6450-6500		Grain/Cassava
	Guangxi	6500-6600	6500-6600		Cassava-based
Port	Jinzhou Port	5500-5500	5500-5500		Standard grade, Corn-based
Fuel Ethanol	Heilongjiang (East)	5800-6087	5800-6087		Delivered to Heilongjiang
	Heilongjiang (West)	5800-6087	5800-6087		Delivered to Heilongjiang
	Liaoning	6000-6317	6000-6317		Delivered price in Liaoning
	Jilin	5600-6237	5600-6237		High-end delivered price in Jilin
	Panjin Independent Refinery (Delivered)	-	-
	Shandong Independent Refinery (Delivered)	5710-5710	5710-5710		Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol	Shaanxi Auction Start	5520	5520		Online auction starting price
	Anhui Auction Start	5910	5910		Online auction starting price
	Henan (Standard)	5900	5900		Quote, transaction negotiable
	Henan (High-end)	-	-		Plant shutdown
	Shandong	6200	6200		Plant shutdown
	Hunan	6100	6100		Quote, transaction negotiable
	Hebei	6350	6350		Quote, transaction negotiable
	Hubei	6050	6050		Quote, transaction negotiable
	Guangdong	6650	6650		Quote, transaction negotiable
Ethyl Acetate	East China (Ex-works)	6650-6950	6700-6950	-50/0
MTBE	Shandong (Ex-works)	8050-8050	8030-8050	+20/0
DDGS	Heilongjiang	2070-2140	2070-2140
	Jilin	2150-2230	2150-2230
	Henan	2080-2080	2080-2080
Freight Tracking	West Heilongjiang to Shandong	480-540	480-540		Standard grade ethanol
	Henan to Shandong	100-200	100-200
	East Heilongjiang to Shandong	380-430	380-430		Standard grade ethanol
	Northwest to Shandong	270-330	270-330
	Mengzhou to Chengdu	350-390	350-390		Return empty trucks are relatively cheap

Units: CNY/ton, except crude oil in USD/bbl.

3. Data Table

Data Type	This Week	Last Week	Expected Trend
Cassava Ethanol Profit	279.51	-279.51	↗
Corn Ethanol Profit	-138.75	-138.75	↗
Coal-based Ethanol Profit	300	300	↗

Remarks:

Cassava ethanol profit refers to production profit for cassava-based ethanol in the Northern Jiangsu/East China market.
Corn ethanol profit refers to production profit for corn-based ethanol in the Northeast Heilongjiang market.
Molasses ethanol profit refers to production profit for molasses-based ethanol in the Southern market.

Unit: CNY/ton

4. Market Outlook

Short-term domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable.

Northeast China: Prices are stable to slightly strong. Some product categories face tight pickup availability from plants. Supported by favorable supply-side factors, there is potential for price increases.
East China: Prices are stable, driven by shipments against existing downstream contracts.
Henan: Downstream demand has decreased, leading to potential small price declines.
Coal-based Ethanol: Prices are stable, with shipments occurring per contract orders.
Fuel Ethanol: Prices are weak, with potential for further softening.

Data	Release Time	Current Value	Trend Forecast
Ethanol Operating Rate	Thursday 15:00 PM	59.19%	↗
Ethyl Acetate Operating Rate	Thursday 15:00 PM	51.08%	↗

Remarks:

↑↓ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.

Historical Reference: Oct 28 Report

Product	Region	2025/10/28	2025/10/27	Change	Remarks
Crude Oil	WTI	60.15	61.31	-1.16	USD/bbl
	Brent	64.4	65.62	-1.22	USD/bbl
Domestic Gasoline Guidance Price (89#)	Shandong	7969	7969		CNY/ton
Dried Cassava Chips	Thailand	212-215	212-215		FOB, USD/ton
Converted to Plant Gate Price	East China	1828-1856	1828-1856		CNY/ton
Corn (Plant Intake)	Heilongjiang	1955-2002	1955-2002
	Jilin	2010-2090	2020-2090	-10/0
	Henan	2200-2210	2200-2210		Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
	Shandong	2170-2170	2160-2160	+10/+10	Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Standard Grade Ethanol	Heilongjiang (East)	4820-4830	4820-4830		Corn-based
	Heilongjiang (West)	4850-4900	4850-4900		Corn-based
	Jilin	4950-5050	4950-5050		Corn-based
	Shandong	5400-5400	5400-5400		Cassava-based, ex-factory
	Shandong	5150-5300	5150-5300		Wheat-based
	Northern Jiangsu	5300-5300	5300-5300		Cassava-based
	Southern Jiangsu	5400-5400	5400-5400		Cassava-based, ex-factory
	Anhui	5350-5350	5350-5350		Grain/Cassava
	Guangxi	5650-5700	5650-5700		Cassava-based
Premium Grade Ethanol	Heilongjiang	4900-4950	4900-4950		East/West, Corn-based
	Jilin	5100-5450	5100-5450		Corn-based
	Shandong	5300-5350	5300-5350		Wheat-based
	Northern Jiangsu	5380-5380	5380-5380
	Henan	5230-5250	5230-5250		Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol	Heilongjiang (Standard)	5400-5450	5400-5450		Corn-based
	Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade)	5450-5500	5450-5500		Corn-based
	Jilin (Standard)	5500-5850	5500-5850		Corn-based, transactions mainly at low end
	Jilin (Electronic Grade)	5650-5950	5650-5950		Corn-based, transactions mainly at low end
	Henan (Standard)	5900-5950	5900-5950		Corn-based
	Henan (Electronic Grade)	-	-		Corn-based, no stock available
	Northern Jiangsu	5900-5900	5900-5900		Cassava-based
	Anhui	5900-5950	5900-5950		Grain/Cassava
	Guangxi	6350-6450	6350-6450		Cassava-based
Port	Jinzhou Port	5100-5200	5100-5200		Standard grade, Corn-based
Fuel Ethanol	Heilongjiang (East)	5200-5200	5200-5200
	Heilongjiang (West)	5250-5250	5250-5250
	Liaoning	5500-5500	5500-5500
	Jilin	5400-5400	5400-5400
	Panjin Independent Refinery (Delivered)	-	-
	Shandong Independent Refinery (Delivered)	5250-5250	5260-5290	-10/-40	Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol	Shaanxi Auction Start	5450	5450		Online quote
	Anhui Auction Start	5400	-		Online auction starting price
	Henan (Standard)	5800	5800		Hydrogenation of acetate esters
	Henan (High-end)	-	-		Quote (Plant shut down on 13th)
	Shandong	5400	5460	-60	Quote
	Hunan	5600	5600		Quote
	Hebei	5600	5600		Quote, transaction negotiable
	Guangdong	-	-
	Guangdong (High-end)	5950	6100	-150	High-end, purity 99.9%
Ethyl Acetate	East China (Ex-works)	5140-5200	5140-5200
MTBE	Shandong (Ex-works)	4850-4950	4900-4950	-50/0
DDGS	Heilongjiang	2030-2150	2030-2150
	Jilin	1950-2250	1950-2250
	Henan	2330-2330	2330-2330
Freight Tracking	West Heilongjiang to Shandong	280-300	280-300		Standard grade ethanol
	Henan to Shandong	100-200	100-200
	East Heilongjiang to Shandong	330-370	330-370		Fuel ethanol
	Northwest to Shandong	260-270	260-270
	Mengzhou to Chengdu	250-300	250-300		Return empty trucks are relatively cheap

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