Liquid chlorine holds steady as crude oil falls on US-Iran talks

1. Today's Summary

2. On November 2, various parties continued to push for US-Iran peace talks, easing market concerns about supply risks and causing international crude oil prices to fall. The NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract for December delivery closed at $96.46/barrel, down $7.66/barrel (-7.36% WoW). The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract (rolling to January delivery) closed at $104.77/barrel, down $8.66/barrel (-7.63% WoW). In China, the INE crude oil futures contract for December 2026 delivery rose by 17.6 yuan to 745.2 yuan/barrel during the day session but fell by 64.2 yuan to 681 yuan/barrel in the night session.

3. On November 3, domestic liquid chlorine prices remained stable at 500 yuan/ton.

4. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Dichloromethane Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Using the Shandong region as a benchmark, dichloromethane prices in Shandong closed today at 3250 CNY/ton (range: 3200-3300 CNY/ton), remaining stable compared to the previous working day. The domestic dichloromethane market traded sideways today, with enterprises flexibly adjusting their offers based on their own shipment conditions and inventory levels. However, current dichloromethane prices are high, leading to insufficient order-taking enthusiasm from downstream users and traders. Demand lacks effective support, resulting in a cautious wait-and-see attitude prevailing in the market.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate of methane chlorides stood at 69.21%. Gansu Juhua has commenced production, and its output is now included in the total capacity and production statistics. Regarding costs and profits, upstream raw material liquid chlorine prices remained stable today, as did methanol prices, keeping the theoretical cost of methane chlorides unchanged. Based on calculations using externally sourced liquid chlorine, the daily profit margin for methane chlorides was 98 CNY/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Current dichloromethane prices are at relatively high levels, with insufficient momentum for downstream users and traders to follow up on orders. Trading activity is poor, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevails in the market. However, some methane chloride producers currently face low inventory pressure, and subsequent shutdown plans exist for certain enterprises. Amidst these conflicting factors, the domestic dichloromethane market is expected to remain stable but slightly weak. Attention should be paid to future developments in news and fundamentals.

5. Related Product Status

Refrigerant Market: Using the bulk spot market in East China as a benchmark, mainstream fluorine refrigerant R32 factories maintained firm offers while controlling volumes to protect prices. As of press time, major factories in East China quoted around 65,500 CNY/ton (consistent quotes for both domestic and export markets); mainstream market quotes in East China ranged from 63,500 to 64,500 CNY/ton, aligning with morning expectations. Market intelligence indicates that inquiries for bulk spot trading have been passively stagnant for a long time. Bulk spot supplies are primarily fixed for main original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), while small-package shipments are slow. Consequently, source factories strictly control incremental spot supplies. Statistics show that the overall industry operating load for fluorine refrigerant R32 remains near 40%. Recently, factory production schedules and consumption forces have further contracted. Export volumes have rebounded, actively reducing inventories. With R32 prices hovering at highs, channel stockholders are seeking opportunities to sell and reduce inventory. Buyers show little interest in purchasing high-cost inventory, preferring to wait for clear pricing signals from mainstream large factories. Chempricehub predicts that short-term strategies for fluorine refrigerant R32 will focus on volume control to maintain prices, with commercial negotiations determining contract pricing. Industry unit dynamics and production scheduling rhythms should be monitored.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Methane Chloride Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)