How do crude oil and geopolitical events drive toluene price spikes?

How do crude oil and geopolitical events drive toluene price spikes?
Toluene prices are highly sensitive to crude oil movements and supply chain disruptions. In early September, WTI crude hit $91.83/barrel and Brent $96.57, driven by Middle East tensions. This pushed domestic toluene prices up by 100-390 yuan/ton to 7,700-8,110 yuan/ton in a single day. The impact amplifies through the aromatics chain: when Strait of Hormuz shipping is threatened, naphtha supply tightens, directly constraining toluene production. A hypothetical blockade scenario shows Japan's toluene output halving, with supply falling to 45% of normal levels. Since toluene is a hazardous chemical with limited storage capacity, supply shocks translate quickly into price spikes, as seen when weekly aromatics gains reached 850-1,060 yuan/ton, representing 11.65-13.49% moves.