How does China's ammonium nitrate capacity expansion affect regional supply and market competition?

How does China's ammonium nitrate capacity expansion affect regional supply and market competition?
China's ammonium nitrate industry is consolidating, with the top ten producers accounting for 70-80% of output. New capacity is still being built, with Tianji Coal Chemical Group alone adding 1.73 million tons. Effective national capacity is around 10 million tons per year, but actual supply is only about 6 million tons, reflecting low utilization. The industry is geographically dispersed across Henan, Hebei, Shanxi, Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Guangxi. Because of transport restrictions and the 500-kilometer sales radius, regional supply-demand imbalances are common. In Xinjiang, Snowflake Technology is the sole producer with 660,000 tons of designed capacity, and its output of 450,000 tons in 2024 is set to rise with local mining demand. This regional monopoly gives it pricing power, especially as the government encourages zero-inventory policies.