How will Brazil's anti-dumping duties on Chinese ethanolamine reshape trade flows and pricing?

How will Brazil's anti-dumping duties on Chinese ethanolamine reshape trade flows and pricing?
Brazil's 2026 anti-dumping ruling, with duties up to 97.3% for five years, is a severe blow to Chinese ethanolamine exporters. Only Jiangsu Sailboat received a reduced 23.6% rate; most others face near-maximum tariffs. Chinese shipments to Brazil surged from a few hundred tons to nearly 20,000 tons between 2020 and 2024, capturing a dominant share. Brazil's domestic producer Oxiteno filed the complaint, citing low-priced imports. The retroactive five-year data review and use of third-country cost benchmarks add uncertainty. Expect Chinese exporters to redirect volumes to Southeast Asia, Africa, or the Middle East, potentially pressuring prices there. Domestic Brazilian buyers, reliant on imports for agrochemical and cosmetics feedstocks, will face higher costs and possible supply tightness.