How will US and Australian heavy rare earth output reshape terbium oxide supply?

How will US and Australian heavy rare earth output reshape terbium oxide supply?
Terbium oxide remains one of the most tightly controlled heavy rare earth products, with China historically supplying over 98% of global output. The 2025 export controls on terbium-containing items sent European CIF prices for 99.99% material from roughly $930-1,000/kg in early April to $2,000-4,000/kg by May, the highest since Argus began assessments in 2015. Meanwhile, Lynas announced first terbium extraction at its Malaysia plant in June 2025, and USA Rare Earth secured $160 million in US government funding to build a domestic metal and magnet corridor. However, these non-Chinese projects remain small relative to demand, and high-purity separation capacity outside China is still virtually nonexistent. The near-term pricing power for terbium oxide therefore stays firmly with Chinese producers, even as Western buyers scramble to diversify supply chains.