What drives the price gap between Chinese and overseas terbium oxide markets?

What drives the price gap between Chinese and overseas terbium oxide markets?
The 2025 export controls on seven medium and heavy rare earth items, including terbium, created a stark two-tier market. Domestically, terbium oxide traded around 7.18 million yuan per ton in early June, up 28% year-to-date. But overseas, European CIF prices for 99.99% terbium oxide spiked to $2,000-4,000/kg, roughly 2-4 times higher than Chinese domestic levels. This gap reflects acute supply scarcity outside China, where buyers face low inventories and limited non-Chinese supply options. Chinese producers, however, cannot fully capture this premium because oxide exports require licenses, and the 3-5x markup is largely captured by traders, processors, and strategic stockpilers rather than miners. As export permits gradually flow to at least six companies since mid-May, the arbitrage window is expected to narrow, potentially lifting domestic prices toward international levels.