I. Upstream: All Raw Material Prices Higher Than the Same Period in 2025

Table 1: Price Comparison Statistics for Some MMA Upstream Raw Materials (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

| Region | 2025/6/16 | 2025/12/30 | 2026/6/16 | Change vs. End of Last Year | Change % | Change | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Acetone | 5335 | 4070 | 6050 | 715 | 13.40% | 1980 | 48.65% |
| Shandong Isobutylene | 7700 | 7350 | 8850 | 1150 | 14.94% | 1500 | 20.41% |
| Shandong MTBE | 5135 | 4805 | 5700 | 565 | 11.00% | 895 | 18.63% |
| Shandong Tert-Butanol (85% Purity) | 5550 | 5000 | 6800 | 1250 | 22.52% | 1800 | 36.00% |
| Jiangsu Sulfuric Acid (98%) | 660 | 1060 | 2400 | 1740 | 263.64% | 1340 | 126.42% |
| Taicang Methanol | 2585 | 2202 | 3120 | 535 | 20.70% | 918 | 41.69% |

As shown in Figure 1, the price trends of some upstream MMA products in 2026 all experienced a broad rise. It is evident that the average price level in the first half of 2026 was higher than in the second half of 2025. Moreover, prices were also higher than the same period in 2025.

As shown in Table 1, as of June 16, 2026, the year-on-year price increases varied by product. Among them, Jiangsu Sulfuric Acid (98%), Jiangsu Acetone, and Taicang Methanol saw larger increases compared to other varieties, rising by 126.42%, 48.65%, and 41.69%, respectively.

Comparing the prices of each product at the end of 2025 and on June 16, 2026, all price trends showed an increase. The price of Jiangsu Sulfuric Acid (98%) experienced a particularly significant rise of 263.64%. Consequently, driven by rising raw material prices, MMA production costs increased in 2026.

II. Interplay of Costs, Supply & Demand, and Other Factors: MMA Prices Surged Broadly Then Pulled Back

Table 2: MMA Price Change Comparison Table Between 2025 and 2026 (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

| Product | Region/Category | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MMA | Shandong | 13042 | 10241 | 2801 | 10668 | 11525 | -857 |
| | East China | 13141 | 10320 | 2821 | 10794 | 11551 | -757 |
| | South China | 13796 | 10957 | 2839 | 11664 | 12214 | -550 |

As shown in Figures 2 and 3, influenced by geopolitical situations, combined with cost and export drivers, MMA prices experienced a broad rally from March to April. Subsequently, the market trended towards rationality, returning to supply-demand fundamentals, and the center of gravity began to decline from late April onwards. During certain periods, regional supply-demand dynamics led to different transmission patterns, with a larger price gap between South China and East China, creating some arbitrage opportunities. However, for most of the time, the price spread remained at a relatively reasonable level.

III. Downstream: Cost Pass-Through Varies

Table 3: MMA Downstream Price Change Comparison Table between 2025 and 2026 (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

| Region | 2025/6/16 | 2025/12/30 | 2026/6/16 | Change (vs. Same Period Last Year) | Change (vs. End of Last Year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China PMMA Pellets | 14300 | 12300 | 14500 | 200 | 2200 |
| ACR | 12200 | 10950 | 13950 | 1750 | 3000 |
| Pure Acrylic Emulsion | 6450 | 5700 | 7050 | 600 | 1350 |

As shown in Figure 4 and Table 3, the degree of cost pass-through varied among MMA downstream sectors. As of June 16, 2026, the prices of downstream MMA products—PMMA pellets, ACR, and pure acrylic emulsion—were higher than the same period in 2025. Among them, ACR saw the largest increase of 1,750 Yuan/ton. Additionally, the price increases of each downstream product compared to the end of 2025 differed; PMMA pellets and ACR rose by over 2,000 Yuan/ton, while pure acrylic emulsion rose by 1,350 Yuan/ton.

From the correlation coefficient perspective, in 2025, the correlation coefficient between MMA and PMMA pellets was 0.90, while it was 0.98 with ACR. In January-June 2026, the correlation coefficient between MMA and ACR increased to 0.95, which was still higher than the correlation coefficient between MMA and PMMA pellets (0.98).

It is evident that MMA has a certain correlation with the trends of its downstream sectors. However, in the long run, supply and demand dominate market trends, though it is difficult to completely detach from the impact of costs. At the same time, unplanned factors occur from time to time, making their impact on the market unpredictable.