Insufficient demand follow-up; ECH trending weakly downward

1. Today's Summary

① Glycerin prices continued their weak, narrow decline. The delivered price for 99.5% glycerin in East China ranged between 8,950 and 9,050 RMB/ton.

② ECH (Epichlorohydrin) prices fell. The delivered acceptance price in the Jiangsu market was 11,000–11,100 RMB/ton.

③ Cost support remains present, but downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, leading to a stable trend in epoxy resin prices.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic ECH Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Taking the Jiangsu region as the benchmark, today's ECH price closed at 11,050 RMB/ton, a decrease of 100 RMB/ton compared to the previous period, aligning with morning expectations. The ECH market showed weakness and downward trends today. Following the holiday break, the price of the primary raw material, glycerin, declined, weakening cost support. Additionally, downstream participants adopted a wait-and-see approach with low enthusiasm for new orders. This resulted in sluggish shipments from ECH manufacturers, with frequent appearance of low-price offers in the market. However, downstream demand did not improve, with actual transactions dominated by small lots, creating a relatively quiet overall atmosphere.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, domestic ECH plants maintained low-load operations, with an industry capacity utilization rate of approximately 48%. For propylene-based ECH, the cost was 9,876 RMB/ton, yielding a daily profit of 874 RMB/ton. For glycerin-based ECH, the cost was 12,000 RMB/ton, resulting in a daily loss of 950 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ECH prices exhibited a downward trend today. Following the return to the market after the holiday, the price of the primary raw material, glycerin, continued to fall, weakening the cost support for the glycerin-based process. Combined with limited inquiries from downstream buyers, this led to sluggish shipments from ECH manufacturers. Furthermore, some enterprises had plans to clear inventory, increasing competitive pressure and driving down negotiated prices for new orders. Therefore, it is expected that domestic ECH prices will continue their weak downward trend in the near term.

5. Related Product Status

Epoxy Resin Market: Taking the East China region as the benchmark, today's ex-factory net water price for liquid E-51 epoxy resin closed at 14,800–15,200 RMB/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. In the Huangshan area, the cash price for solid E-12 epoxy resin in surrounding areas closed at 14,400–14,700 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, consistent with morning market expectations. On the raw material side, ECH prices weakened slightly. Epoxy resin factories suffered significant losses previously and maintained stable quotes. Post-holiday, downstream demand remained primarily in a wait-and-see mode with few inquiries, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere and a temporarily stable market center.

Glycerin Market: Taking the East China region as the benchmark, today's delivered price for 99.5% glycerin closed at 9,000 RMB/ton, a decrease of 25 RMB/ton compared to the previous period, with freight costs referenced at 150 RMB/ton, largely aligning with morning expectations. Domestic glycerin prices saw a slight decline today. Post-holiday, downstream buyers entered the market cautiously with low purchasing enthusiasm. Sellers softened their quotes, leading to an increase in low-priced supply while high-priced deals were rare, causing the negotiation center to shift downwards. In the short term, as epoxy resin prices continue to fall, downstream acceptance of high-cost raw materials is limited. Demand performance is unlikely to provide positive support for the glycerin market, so domestic glycerin prices are expected to maintain a weak trend.

Table 2: Domestic ECH Data Overview (Unit: RMB/ton)