Intensified Supply-Demand Dynamics with Limited Overall Volatility (Oct 29 – Nov 5, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

   1. Fluorite market sentiment has cooled, with increased wait-and-see attitudes.

   2. The reference delivered price for the mainstream November contract of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride is 15,300–15,650 RMB/ton.

   3. Demand follow-through for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride remains insufficient; capacity utilization has contracted, deepening the supply-demand tug-of-war.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

This week, the domestic market for 97% fluorite concentrate was characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiment, with market atmosphere fluctuating repeatedly. As downstream anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) tender pricing cycles are underway, bearish sentiment regarding fluorite was initially evident in the market. However, the pricing center shifted significantly upward due to tight supply and cost support. Procurement prices from major southern producers rose by 150 RMB/ton, guiding market sentiment. Previously, the supply side had been pushing prices up based on expectations of tighter future supply and cost factors, and these bullish moves were largely absorbed by the market. On the demand side, bearish sentiment remained prevalent, particularly in southern markets where negotiation centers showed a downward trend. In northern markets, pressure to lower prices persisted following months of price increases. The supply-demand tug-of-war is expected to deepen further as participants await more information to guide future movements. Current spot delivered prices across domestic regions are as follows: Inner Mongolia: 3,300–3,400 RMB/ton; Zhejiang: 3,500–3,600 RMB/ton; Jiangxi and Fujian: 3,700–3,750 RMB/ton; Shandong: 3,550–3,650 RMB/ton; Northwest China: 3,400–3,450 RMB/ton; Henan and Anhui: 3,450–3,500 RMB/ton. As of publication time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic fluorite wet powder ranges from 3,300 to 3,750 RMB/ton.

3. Analysis of Factors Influencing Downstream Markets

Weekly Anhydrous Hydrogen Fluoride (AHF) Market Overview:

The AHF market this week exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment. The momentum driving the market has weakened compared to previous periods, with industry participants adopting a cautious stance.

• Raw Material Side: The fluorite market showed slight divergence, with price ranges declining in northern markets while upward push in southern markets remained limited, resulting in overall minor fluctuations. Meanwhile, the sulfuric acid market softened; despite maintenance shutdowns at large-capacity plants, the downtrend could not be halted. Overall, cost-side support has weakened, and further softening is expected in the near term.
• Production Side: Due to the loosening of cost pressures, the willingness of producers to push prices has also relaxed. Major northern plants have yet to resume operations, while most enterprises maintain high load rates, leaving profit margins relatively favorable. With demand expected to remain weak and consolidate, producers are becoming less sensitive to tight supply conditions.
• Demand Side: Refrigerant quotas are nearing their end, and export conditions have shown no significant improvement. Simultaneously, production schedules in terminal industries continue to decline. Although fluoro-polymers and the lithium battery sector maintain high operating loads, they are insufficient to reverse the overall market atmosphere.

As of publication time, the mainstream delivered price for AHF in East China for November is referenced at 15,300–15,650 RMB/ton, while in Shandong it is 15,500–15,600 RMB/ton.

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

In summary, participant sentiments vary across the board but lean generally bearish. Uncommitted downstream demand exhibits pressure to lower prices, and the supply-demand tug-of-war continues. Chempricehub predicts that the domestic fluorite market will experience range-bound oscillations next week.