Is DIBP facing substitution risks from DINP and other plasticizers in China?

Is DIBP facing substitution risks from DINP and other plasticizers in China?
Yes, substitution pressure is building. DINP, produced from isononyl alcohol, is increasingly favored as a 'cleaner' plasticizer with better heat, light, and aging resistance, plus electrical insulation. Global isononyl alcohol capacity is around 1.6 million t/y, with China adding local production—Maoming Petrochemical BASF started 180,000 t/y in 2015, and Qixiang Tengda is building a 200,000 t/y unit. As DINP supply grows domestically, it will likely displace DIBP in premium PVC applications like toys, automotive, wire and cable, and flooring. However, DIBP retains a cost edge in general-purpose flexible PVC, artificial leather, and sealants where performance requirements are lower. Regulatory bans in toys and electronics accelerate the shift, but for many industrial uses, DIBP remains economically viable. The pace of substitution will depend on the price gap between isobutanol and isononyl alcohol feedstocks, as well as enforcement of new Chinese RoHS limits.