Lack of bullish confidence leads to a sluggish market rebound

1. Today's Summary:

① MEG inventory at major East China ports stood at 115,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous statistical period.
② International crude oil prices rose; coal prices also increased.
③ Shipments from major East China ports increased week-on-week.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic MEG Market Closing Prices (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On October 15, the closing price for MEG in Zhangjiagang was 5,685 CNY/ton, a drop of 37 CNY. The closing delivered price in the South China market was 5,850 CNY/ton, a drop of 130 CNY. The USD-denominated closing price was 685 USD/ton, a drop of 15 USD.

The MEG market trended downward today. At the morning opening, spot prices in Zhangjiagang started around 5,720 CNY/ton. Buying interest remained low throughout the session, leading to volatile price declines. Weakness persisted into the afternoon, with spot negotiations dropping to around 5,690 CNY/ton by the close. However, the spot basis strengthened, ending near Nov+510. The South China market showed flat performance, with downstream buyers cautious and purchasing only based on rigid demand, resulting in thin actual transactions.

3. Spot Basis

The spot basis strengthened, ending near Nov+510.

Table 2: Changes in Jiangsu Market Spot Basis (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3: Operating Rates by MEG Process (Unit: %)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On October 15, the overall domestic MEG operating rate was 63.50% (down 0.43%), integrated units were at 61.60% (down 0.17%), and coal-to-MEG units were at 66.78% (down 0.88%).

In February 2026, total domestic MEG capacity was adjusted upward to 30.819 million tons. Syngas-based MEG capacity remained stable at 11.3 million tons. Non-syngas capacity increased by 800,000 tons due to the addition of BASF's Zhanjiang plant, rising to 19.519 million tons.

Table 4: MEG Profits by Process (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Port Shipment Status:

On October 14, 2026, daily MEG shipments from a major storage area in Zhangjiagang totaled 2,000 tons, a decrease of 25.93% week-on-week. Daily shipments from two major storage areas in Taicang totaled 3,900 tons, an increase of 178.57% week-on-week.

Major Port Inventory Status (Updated Mondays and Thursdays):

As of October 15, total MEG inventory at major East China ports was 115,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from Monday and 14,000 tons from last Thursday.

Detailed breakdown: Zhangjiagang 40,000 tons, Taicang 50,000 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou 12,000 tons, Shanghai and Changshu 13,000 tons.

Regarding shipments this cycle: Zhangjiagang averaged 2,600 tons/day, and Taicang averaged 2,700 tons/day.

Table 5: Weekly Comparison of East China Port Inventories (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Market Sentiment

Table 6: Domestic MEG Upstream and Downstream Participant Sentiment Forecast (Updated Weekly on Thursdays)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

6. Future Outlook:

Geopolitical uncertainties persist, and crude oil remains high. With the MEG supply-demand structure weakening, the short-term downtrend is expected to continue. Tomorrow's ex-works spot price in East China is projected to be in the range of 5,600–5,700 CNY/ton.

7. Related Product Markets

1. Related Product Prices

Table 7: Polyester Chain Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

2. Polyester Related Loadings:

PTA loading: Stable at 67.63%, with a capacity base of 93.3 million tons/year.
Polyester loading: Stable at 72.17%, with a capacity base of 91.025 million tons/year.

3. Intraday Sales Volume of Polyester Products:

Today (Oct 15, 2026), the average sales ratio for sample polyester filament enterprises was 29.3%, down 10.7 percentage points from the previous trading day's closing data. The polyester filament market traded sideways. Downstream users' buying sentiment was low, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand replenishment. Inquiry activity was sluggish. Specific sales ratios were as follows: 45%, 20%, 40%, 30%, 25%, 40%, 0%, 30%, 25%, 15%, 15%, 30%, 40%, 35%, 30%, 20%, 0%, 20%, 40%, 20%, 10%, 30%, 30%, 40%.

Today (Oct 15, 2026), Chinese direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories had a sales ratio of 42.51%, down 15.59 percentage points from the previous trading day. Specific sales ratios were as follows: 50%, 40%, 69%, 30%, 10%, 50%, 70%, 0%.

Today (Oct 15, 2026), the sales ratio for sample domestic polyester chip enterprises was 28.53%, down 8.17 percentage points from the previous period (Oct 14, 2026). Cost declines dragged on sentiment, and trading atmosphere in the polyester chip market was weak. Specific sales ratios were as follows: 30%, 45%, 30%, 70%, 0%, 20%, 20%, 0%.

8. Data Calendar (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)