Lack of substantive positive catalysts has led to weak market rebound.

1. Today’s Summary:

① Ethylene glycol (MEG) inventory at major East China ports stood at 160,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous statistical period.
② International crude oil prices showed mixed movements, while coal prices remained stable.
③ Shipments from major East China ports decreased compared to the previous period.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic MEG Market Closing Prices (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

On October 22, the closing price for MEG in Zhangjiagang was 5,515 CNY/ton, up by 10 CNY. The South China market closed with delivered prices at 5,800 CNY/ton, remaining flat. The USD-denominated closing price was 667 USD/ton, down by 8 USD.

The MEG spot market exhibited a "high open, low close" trend today. At the morning session opening, Zhangjiagang spot prices continued yesterday's strength, opening high around 5,550 CNY/ton. However, buying interest remained cautious during the trading day, leading to stalemate conditions in the morning. In the afternoon, prices retreated from intraday highs, with spot negotiations settling around 5,470 CNY/ton by the close. Spot basis fluctuations intensified; the basis strengthened to approximately November=+460 early in the session but weakened later, returning to around November+390 by the close. The South China market showed little movement, with downstream buyers maintaining a wait-and-see approach based on rigid demand, resulting in stagnant transactions.

3. Spot Basis

Spot basis volatility increased. The basis strengthened to approximately November=+460 in the morning session, softened during the day, and returned to around November+390 by the close.

Table 2: Jiangsu Market Spot Basis Changes (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3: MEG Operating Rates by Process (Unit: %)

Data Source: Chempricehub

On October 22, the overall domestic MEG operating rate was 64.11% (up 0.05%). Integrated units operated at 61.60% (flat), while coal chemical units operated at 68.46% (up 0.15%).

As of February 2026, total domestic MEG capacity has been adjusted upward to 30.819 million tons. Among these, syngas-based MEG capacity remains stable at 11.3 million tons. Non-syngas capacity increased to 19.519 million tons due to the addition of BASF Zhanjiang's 800,000-ton unit.

Table 4: MEG Profits by Process (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

Major Port Shipment Status:

On October 21, 2026, daily shipments from a major storage area in Zhangjiagang were 2,400 tons, an increase of 41.18% week-on-week. Daily shipments from two major storage areas in Taicang were 2,000 tons, a decrease of 58.33% week-on-week.

Major Port Inventory Status (Updated Mondays and Thursdays):

As of October 22, total MEG inventory at major East China ports was 160,000 tons, down 3,000 tons from last Monday and up 45,000 tons from last Thursday.

Breakdown by location:

• Zhangjiagang: 59,000 tons
• Taicang: 71,000 tons
• Jiangyin & Changzhou: 20,000 tons
• Shanghai & Changshu: 10,000 tons

Shipment trends for this period:

• Zhangjiagang average daily shipment: 1,800–1,900 tons
• Taicang average daily shipment: approx. 5,000 tons

Table 5: Weekly Comparison of East China Port Inventories (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub

5. Market Sentiment

Table 6: Domestic MEG Upstream and Downstream Participant Sentiment Forecast (Updated weekly on Thursdays)

Data Source: Chempricehub

6. Outlook

Geopolitical uncertainties persist, keeping crude oil prices elevated. This provides some cost-side support to the MEG market. However, the supply-demand structure remains weak, limiting the market's rebound potential. Tomorrow's ex-warehouse spot price in East China is expected to range between 5,400 and 5,500 CNY/ton.

7. Related Product Trends

1. Related Product Prices

Table 7: Polyester Chain Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

2. Polyester Related Loadings:

• PTA Loading: Stable at 67.63%, with a capacity base of 93.30 million tons/year.
• Polyester Loading: Increased to 72.93%, with a capacity base of 91.025 million tons/year.

3. Daily Sales-to-Production Ratios for Polyester Products:

Today (October 22, 2026), the average sales-to-production ratio for sample polyester filament (POY) enterprises was 39.6%, up 9.9% from the previous trading day's closing data. Downstream users' bearish sentiment persisted, with purchases driven primarily by rigid demand, resulting in sluggish sales for polyester filament. Specific sales ratios were: 50%, 150%, 70%, 35%, 40%, 20%, 20%, 35%, 30%, 20%, 20%, 35%, 40%, 35%, 30%, 25%, 0%, 40%, 70%, 70%, 20%, 15%, 30%, 30%, 40%.

Today (October 22, 2026), the sales-to-production ratio for direct-spun polyester staple fiber (PSF) factories in China was 45.08%, down 15.22% from the previous trading day. Specific ratios were: 44%, 60%, 80%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 110%, 0%.

Today (October 22, 2026), the sales-to-production ratio for sample polyester chip enterprises was 43.91%, up 12.07% from the previous period (October 21, 2026). Trading in the polyester chip market showed divergence. Specific ratios were: 50%, 70%, 30%, 70%, 0%, 40%, 200%, 20%.

8. Data Calendar (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)