Leading Factors Alternating: Dichloromethane Experiences Consolidation After Rally (Oct 9–15, 2026)

1. Market Analysis for the Current Period

Figure 1: Price Trend of Domestic Dichloromethane in China, 2026 (CNY/ton)

During this period, the domestic dichloromethane (DCM) market stabilized after an initial rally. Affected by the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, feedstock methanol prices continued to surge, while liquid chlorine prices in Shandong remained at high levels. The simultaneous rise in these two key raw materials for methane chlorides squeezed profit margins, leading many producers into a loss-making position. Under such intense cost pressure, production enthusiasm within the methane chloride industry was dampened, resulting in a sustained decline in operating rates and a gradual tightening of spot supply. With inventories under no significant pressure, sellers maintained firm pricing.

However, as methanol prices subsequently began to drop significantly, cost pressures on methane chloride producers eased, boosting their willingness to operate. Overall industry utilization rates recovered to approximately 70%. Nevertheless, once DCM prices reached elevated levels, downstream buyers and traders became less inclined to place orders due to insufficient follow-up momentum. Amidst this interplay, the DCM market entered a consolidation phase with a wait-and-see attitude. Regarding downstream demand, major manufacturers of fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 saw little change in their operating levels, with the industry utilization rate standing at 48% (flat compared to the previous period). For now, balancing limited demand is considered a more optimal strategy than maintaining high production that leads to inventory accumulation.

Looking ahead, DCM prices are expected to decline relative to this week's average. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply Side: In the next period, maintenance shutdowns and restarts will coexist, likely leading to an increase in production volume compared to the current period. Inventory levels among enterprises may vary.
2. Demand Side: With DCM prices remaining high, downstream users and traders are adopting a cautious approach, limiting purchases to small, essential volumes. Demand-side follow-through remains weak.
3. Cost Side: Methanol prices are trending weaker, while liquid chlorine prices show little variation. Consequently, cost pressures on methane chloride producers may alleviate somewhat.

Overall, supply and demand fundamentals are set to dominate again. Given the sluggish performance of the demand side, enterprises are expected to flexibly adjust their offers based on shipment progress and inventory status. Driven primarily by the need to clear shipments, the domestic DCM market is projected to exhibit a generally soft trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in market news and sentiment.

For more weekly market analysis, please refer to the Methane Chloride Weekly Report from Chempricehub.