Limited changes in fundamentals; ECH market remains stable

1. Daily Summary

① Glycerol prices remained stable within a narrow range. The delivered price for 99.5% glycerol in East China was between 9,000 and 9,150 RMB/ton.

② Epichlorohydrin (ECH) traded steadily with slight fluctuations. The accepted-bill-delivered price in the Jiangsu market was 11,100–11,200 RMB/ton.

③ Despite ongoing cost pressures, weak demand support led to minor downward adjustments in epoxy resin prices.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic ECH Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Based on the Jiangsu region, today's ECH price closed at 11,150 RMB/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period and consistent with morning expectations. ECH prices are currently consolidating sideways. With the upcoming National Day holiday approaching, downstream stockpiling is nearing its end, resulting in sparse inquiries for new orders. ECH producers are primarily focused on fulfilling existing orders, quoting new deals based on prevailing market conditions. Although some enterprises maintain high asking prices, actual transactions are scarce, leading to a quiet trading atmosphere.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, domestic ECH production continues to operate at low loads, with an industry capacity utilization rate of approximately 48%. For propylene-route ECH, costs stand at 9,574 RMB/ton with a daily profit of 1,276 RMB/ton. For glycerol-route ECH, costs are 12,075 RMB/ton, resulting in a daily loss of 925 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ECH prices are expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range today. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete. Manufacturers are focused on order fulfillment, while new quotes follow market trends. Although some companies maintain higher asking prices, downstream inquiries remain sparse, and actual transactions are limited. Therefore, short-term prices are projected to fluctuate within a defined interval.

5. Related Product Markets

Epoxy Resin Market: Based on the East China region, today's net-weight ex-works price for liquid E-51 epoxy resin closed at 15,200–15,600 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period. In Huangshan, the cash-payment nearby price for solid E-12 epoxy resin closed at 14,400–14,700 RMB/ton, matching the previous trading day and aligning with morning market expectations. Raw material prices have stabilized temporarily; however, downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low. Trading activity is sluggish, putting pressure on shipments and causing the epoxy resin market to consolidate weakly within a narrow range.

Glycerol Market: Based on the East China region, today's delivered price for 99.5% glycerol closed at 9,075 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Freight costs are estimated at around 150 RMB/ton, generally meeting morning expectations. The domestic glycerol market is currently stable. Sellers show little willingness to lower prices before the holiday, maintaining firm offers. Downstream buyers are mainly consuming existing raw material inventories, with only minimal rigid-demand transactions occurring before the holiday. Consequently, price volatility is limited, and the market remains steady. Pre-holiday glycerol prices are expected to remain stable with no significant fluctuations.

Table 2: Domestic ECH Data Overview (Unit: RMB/ton)