Limited changes in plant operations ahead of the holiday; propylene prices remain stable during the transition period.

1. Today's Summary

① The FOB Korea closing price was USD 1,215/ton, while the China closing price converted to RMB was CNY 9,686/ton.

② The domestic PP powder market generally maintained a high-level consolidation trend. As the holiday approaches, pre-holiday replenishment by downstream end-users has largely concluded, procurement pace has slowed significantly, and market trading activity has become quieter with overall transaction volumes remaining average. On the production side, supported by cost pressures, most producers have maintained firm, high-priced quotations. Meanwhile, some enterprises plan short-term shutdowns during the holiday due to cost factors, and some downstream end-users are also arranging for production stops and holidays, leading to expected contraction on both supply and demand sides. By midday, mainstream quotes in East China were CNY 10,050–10,100/ton, while reference prices in Shandong were CNY 9,850–10,100/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Propylene Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

On September 30, there were 26 data collection points for propylene in Shandong, with 10 valid samples collected (excluding long-term contracts). Transaction volume was approximately 2,800 tons, with prices ranging from CNY 9,700–9,780/ton and an average of CNY 9,740/ton.

Chempricehub reported on September 30: The trading center of gravity in the Shandong propylene market remained stable today, with mainstream closing references at CNY 9,700–9,780/ton and an average of CNY 9,740/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Weakness in international crude oil prices dampened market sentiment; however, low producer inventories, combined with support from pre-holiday downstream stockpiling, kept overall offers stable, with slight local price increases. Some actual transactions showed premiums, but fluctuations within the trading range remained limited.

3. Production Dynamics

Propylene capacity utilization stood at 68.61%. PDH margins were CNY 1,241/ton in East China and CNY 1,181/ton in Shandong. Naphtha cracking process margins were USD 116/ton, while MTO process margins were negative at CNY -3,794/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Current supplier inventories remain at low levels. As pre-holiday downstream stockpiling enters its final phase, the overall supply-demand fundamentals appear relatively robust. Market prices are expected to remain firm during the holiday period.

5. Related Product Status

PP Powder: The Linyi PP powder market saw steady prices with upward momentum. End-of-month timing coincided with pre-National Day purchasing demand, leading to expectations of phased replenishment by downstream users. Essential orders followed through, and the general willingness to maintain prices remained strong. Grade 040 delivered prices referenced around CNY 9,700–9,880/ton, with cash prices at CNY 9,070–9,238/ton. Grade 225 prices referenced CNY 10,100–10,150/ton.

Propylene Oxide (PO): Mainstream negotiations for PO in the Shandong market were at CNY 10,600–10,800/ton ex-works (cash basis). Supply-side units within the market remained stable. With the holiday approaching, downstream demand follow-through weakened. Considering insufficient new orders and logistics restrictions during the holiday, buyers reduced PO purchases and engaged in price negotiations. Today, the trading center of gravity within the market shifted slightly lower, with the market consolidating in a weak trend.

Butanol: Mainstream transactions for butanol in Shandong were at CNY 8,950/ton today. Pre-holiday, butanol factories maintained stable offers to push sales, while downstream users' essential stockpiling atmosphere remained calm. The market currently lacks obvious positive news to boost sentiment, and traders are primarily adopting a wait-and-see approach.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Propylene Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)