Limited Release of Essential Demand; Market Trends Volatile with Downward Pressure (September 2026)

1. Key Market Focus for the Month

① Domestic sulfur production in China reached approximately 891,100 tons this month, representing a month-over-month (MoM) increase of 3.98%.

② National consumption volume stood at 1,198,500 tons, down 7.11% MoM.

③ Current national port inventory levels were 936,900 tons, decreasing by 1.48% MoM.

④ The industry capacity utilization rate for Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) was 48.06%, down 6.78 percentage points from the previous month. For Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), the capacity utilization rate was 47.68%, up 1.83 percentage points from the previous month.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Table 1: International Sulfur Price Monthly Change (Unit: USD/ton)

Table 2: Domestic Sulfur Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

In September, the Chinese spot sulfur market exhibited a volatile downward trend. As of the end of the reporting period, the spot transaction price at Zhenjiang Port was 7,150 CNY/ton, a decrease of 400 CNY/ton from the end of August, representing a drop of 5.30%.

At the beginning of the month, despite severe disruptions in international supply, continuous demand contraction over the preceding weeks forced international suppliers to accept lower spot prices. The official pricing announcements from the Middle East for September further confirmed the pressure on the international sulfur market; notably, Qatar and UAE reduced prices by 10–40 USD/ton compared to the previous month. In USD-denominated spot negotiations, buyers from China and Indonesia were absent, while India's price range narrowed. Meanwhile, the domestic spot market had already undergone significant downward adjustments, leading to a slight recovery in buying interest and a temporary rebound in market prices.

However, shortly thereafter, rumors emerged regarding transactions in Indonesia at approximately 960 USD/ton CFR, which significantly impacted sentiment in the domestic spot market. In domestic port markets, as long-term contract (LTC) suppliers completed their phased restocking, buying activity quieted down. Holders willing to sell were forced to adjust their prices, causing the market to consolidate downwards. Following this adjustment phase, market participants remained skeptical about future trends. Sentiment eroded amid thin trading volumes, forcing pressured sellers to make further price cuts, preventing the domestic spot market from stabilizing.

Simultaneously, indications emerged from the USD market that buyers in China and India expressed interest at levels below 1,000 USD/ton CFR, though these offers were not accepted by suppliers. Subsequent rumors suggested deals were struck in India near 1,050 USD/ton CFR, but no substantive news emerged from China. Toward the end of the month, although there were reports of spot transactions at 1,060 USD/ton CFR in both Indonesia and India, and high offers of 1,145 USD/ton CFR in Brazil, accumulated cost pressures across downstream industries meant that suppliers faced downward price pressure regardless of ongoing shipping disruptions in relevant straits. Consequently, the domestic port market failed to escape its overall weak trajectory, with limited release of rigid demand being the primary driver of the volatile downtrend.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

① As of September 28, port inventories in the Yangtze River region totaled 314,000 tons, an increase of 2.28% from the end of the previous month.

② The capacity utilization rate for sulfuric acid in September was approximately 64.01%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points MoM.

4. Next Month Market Forecast

Currently, demand in the international sulfur market remains sluggish, suggesting potential for further price declines. Domestically, expectations for the release of rigid demand are also limited. Apart from LTC suppliers, demand from other chemical sectors remains uncertain. Barring any unexpected developments, once the phased restocking operations by LTC suppliers conclude, buying interest in the port spot market is likely to revert to a cautious wait-and-see approach. Therefore, it is predicted that the domestic spot market may continue its volatile downward trend in October.