Market Sentiment Under Pressure; Prices Decline Significantly (Oct. 16–22, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① National port inventory stood at 1.1029 million tons, a decrease of 1.81% from last Thursday.

② The industry utilization rate for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) was 37.50% this week, down 3.86 percentage points from last Thursday. The industry utilization rate for diammonium phosphate (DAP) was 39.89%, down 3.44 percentage points from last Thursday.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

This week, the domestic sulfur market continued to perform weakly. As of now, the mainstream granular price at Zhenjiang Port is 5,550 RMB/ton, a drop of 1,050 RMB/ton compared to last Thursday's price (6,600 RMB/ton), representing a decline of 15.91%. On the international front, demand for vessel resources has remained sluggish since the beginning of the month, forcing suppliers to accept buyers' low bids to clear their spot inventories. Operating rates have declined among fertilizer enterprises in North Africa, Brazil, and China, while operating rates for nickel smelting enterprises in Indonesia are also lower than those during the same period last year. With such significant contraction in demand, spot prices continue to erode. There remains a lack of news regarding USD-denominated resource negotiations in China.

Domestically, early-week stimulus efforts failed to materialize. Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach, and holders showed no initiative to trade, leading to a bearish sentiment that drove port spot prices downward. Subsequently, bearish sentiment intensified, with participants maintaining habitual观望 (wait-and-see) operations. Holders were forced into passive waiting, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere and an inability to reverse the continuous downtrend. After several days of downward consolidation, some merchants finally showed interest in purchasing, though they continued to habitually probe with low bids. Some holders responded by selling in line with the trend, causing prices to continue falling, albeit at a narrowed rate. Approaching the weekend, merchant follow-through did not persist; the atmosphere at ports became quieter as all parties waited passively, allowing the market to stabilize temporarily.

Table 1: Comparison of Domestic Sulfur Port Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

2. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

① Puguang Wanzhou prices are currently not quoted externally.

② As of October 22, port inventory in the Yangtze River region was 288,500 tons, a decrease of 3.83% from last Thursday.

3. Next Week's Price Forecast

Currently, the USD-denominated market shows a further downward trend. Domestic merchants maintain a cautious stance, meaning the limited buying interest is unlikely to change fundamentally in the near term. Market sentiment remains under pressure, so it is expected that sulfur prices will continue to operate weakly over the coming week.