MEK Market Experiences Significant Upward Trend (October 2026)

1. Monthly Market Focus

1. Supply: China's methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) production in October reached 67,900 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 10.41%.

2. Profit: The average theoretical profit for plants in October was -718 yuan/ton.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Domestic MEK Regional Price Change Comparison Table (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In October, the domestic MEK market exhibited a trend of rising to a peak, followed by a pullback and consolidation, with the monthly average price shifting noticeably higher compared to the previous month. After the National Day holiday, feedstock ether raffinate C4 prices remained at high levels, placing significant cost pressure on MEK producers and reducing their willingness to sell at low prices. Additionally, some intermediaries actively entered the market to replenish stocks, leading to a recovery in trading sentiment and pushing the market negotiation center upwards. However, demand-side performance remained lukewarm, with downstream users primarily engaging in small-volume restocking based on rigid needs, resulting in limited transactions at high prices. By mid-month, selling pressure from some manufacturers became apparent, widening the room for negotiation. Inquiry activity from end-users was subdued, new orders were insufficient, and high-end quotations subsequently corrected downwards. In late October, as selling pressure eased for major plants, quotation levels rose slightly. The market negotiation center attempted to follow suit, but downstream factories focused mainly on digesting existing inventories, leading to moderate transaction volumes at high prices and causing the market to enter a stalemate and consolidation phase.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. The industry capacity utilization rate for MEK in October was 83.32%, an increase of 5.38 percentage points from the previous month.

2. The volume of MEK lost due to maintenance shutdowns in October was 14,000 tons.

4. Next Month Market Forecast

Considering both supply-demand fundamentals and feedstock trends, the domestic MEK market is expected to maintain a trend dominated by costs, characterized by strong supply and weak demand in November. On the supply side, industry operating rates are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, keeping overall supply ample. Furthermore, there are expectations for new capacity to come online; if released as scheduled, this will further intensify supply pressure. On the demand side, as temperatures drop in northern regions, overall demand from traditional downstream sectors such as coatings and adhesives is expected to weaken month-on-month. Downstream factories are largely sticking to small-order purchases based on rigid needs and scheduling production according to orders, resulting in a slower procurement pace and continued resistance to high-priced goods. Regarding exports, while the significant price advantage between domestic and international markets helps divert some domestic supply and provides support, incremental growth in new export orders remains limited. In summary, constrained by loose supply and weak demand, the price center is likely to probe lower. Although intermittent rebounds are anticipated, they are unlikely to form a trend reversal. Future attention should be paid to changes in the international economic situation, the pace of export order acceptance, and the recovery of domestic demand, which will serve as key variables influencing the market.

For more monthly market analyses, please refer to the Chempricehub Information MEK Monthly Report.