① The U.S. has signaled that the U.S.-Iran conflict is nearing its end, with multiple parties continuing to push for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
② The average price in China’s MIBK industry stood at 12,647 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,873 yuan/ton month-on-month.
③ Although raw material acetone prices rose significantly, insufficient downstream demand follow-through led to an initial rise followed by a decline in MIBK prices.
Table: Domestic MIBK Price Trends and Changes (Monthly)
| Region | Specification | Average Price This Period | Average Price Last Period | Same Period Last Year | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | National Standard | 12,647 | 9,774 | 7,526 | 29.39% | 68.04% |
| South China | National Standard | 13,147 | 10,138 | 7,876 | 29.68% | 66.92% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
The MIBK market experienced an initial surge followed by a downturn during this period. The average price in East China was 12,647 yuan/ton, up 29.39% month-on-month. In the first half of the month, MIBK prices surged sharply. Driven by significant gains in international crude oil, raw material acetone prices climbed rapidly, breaking through the 9,000 yuan/ton mark. This increased cost pressure on MIBK producers, creating strong bullish sentiment in the market. Suppliers had robust incentives to raise prices, while downstream buyers entered the market for essential restocking, making low-priced offers scarce and pushing transaction benchmarks higher. However, as MIBK prices continued to climb, downstream order-taking capacity became constrained. Additionally, in the latter part of the month, acetone prices fell below 9,000 yuan/ton, causing cost support to collapse. Holders’ sentiment softened, leading to lower asking prices. With minimal genuine demand, the market center of gravity declined weakly.
(1) During the month, maintenance shutdowns were completed and units restarted. The monthly capacity utilization rate for the MIBK industry was 55.88%.
(2) The increase in the average MIBK price exceeded the rise in production costs, resulting in improved profit margins for MIBK facilities.
The MIBK market price is expected to fluctuate at high levels before trending downward next month. Acetone prices are anticipated to remain weak, providing insufficient cost support. Coupled with increased MIBK output and supply, holders’ willingness to sell will gradually rise. Downstream demand follow-through remains moderate; although post-holiday restocking may occur, the cycle is likely short, leading to sluggish procurement later on. Overall, the MIBK market is expected to hold firm initially before retreating. It is recommended to monitor the rate of factory inventory accumulation and changes in cost-side dynamics.
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